cbb·system

Illinois Fighting Illini

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2015

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.96 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.82 points per possession 0.12
ME 0.14 points per possession 0.17
PACE 72.05 possessions per game 4.42

At season 2015's latest cutoff (2015-03-10 01:00), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Illinois AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2015. Axis spans 0.46 to 1.07 over 91 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2015

SeasonWLPct
20151516 0.484

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbIllinois auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2015-03-06 2015 Illinois @ Nebraska N 71–86 conf_tournament
2015-02-28 2015 Michigan @ Illinois 60–72 regular
2015-02-26 2015 Michigan State @ Illinois 67–65 regular
2015-02-21 2015 Illinois @ Purdue 47–46 regular
2015-02-18 2015 Illinois @ Rutgers 56–80 regular
2015-02-14 2015 Ohio State @ Illinois 55–66 regular
2015-02-12 2015 Illinois @ Indiana 58–85 regular
2015-02-08 2015 Illinois @ Northwestern 58–64 regular
2015-02-06 2015 Minnesota @ Illinois 69–95 regular
2015-02-01 2015 Wisconsin @ Illinois 73–62 regular
2015-01-30 2015 Illinois @ Nebraska 57–59 regular
2015-01-27 2015 Illinois @ Michigan 57–70 regular
2015-01-23 2015 Northwestern @ Illinois 68–67 regular
2015-01-18 2015 Illinois @ Maryland 54–74 regular
2015-01-16 2015 Illinois @ Michigan State 56–63 regular
2015-01-11 2015 Nebraska @ Illinois 58–53 regular
2015-01-09 2015 Iowa @ Illinois 61–73 regular
2015-01-04 2015 Illinois @ Penn State 91–76 regular
2014-12-28 2015 Purdue @ Illinois 62–55 regular
2014-12-23 2015 Murray State @ Illinois 44–64 regular
2014-12-13 2015 Illinois @ Valparaiso 80–58 regular
2014-12-10 2015 Illinois @ Seton Hall 72–82 regular
2014-12-06 2015 Illinois @ Southern Illinois 86–42 regular
2014-12-04 2015 Virginia @ Illinois 63–86 regular
2014-11-29 2015 Illinois @ Oklahoma N 76–78 regular
2014-11-29 2015 South Florida @ Illinois N 67–61 regular
2014-11-27 2015 Illinois @ Kentucky N 77–71 regular
2014-11-23 2015 Southern @ Illinois 42–62 regular
2014-11-21 2015 Memphis @ Illinois 58–60 regular
2014-11-19 2015 Robert Morris @ Illinois 48–66 regular
2014-11-14 2015 Purdue Fort Wayne @ Illinois 63–70 regular