cbb·system

Tarleton State Texans

mens UAC canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2022

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.02 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.04 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.03 points per possession 0.18
PACE 62.96 possessions per game 4.72

At season 2022's latest cutoff (2022-04-05 01:20), with 28 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Tarleton State AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2022. Axis spans 50.85 to 74.26 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2022

SeasonWLPct
20221417 0.452

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdTarleton State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2022-03-06 2022 Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian 56–61 regular
2022-03-04 2022 Tarleton State @ Sam Houston 50–69 regular
2022-02-27 2022 Lamar @ Tarleton State 49–57 regular
2022-02-25 2022 UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State 62–75 regular
2022-02-19 2022 Tarleton State @ Chicago State 79–60 regular
2022-02-17 2022 Utah Valley @ Tarleton State 69–56 regular
2022-02-13 2022 Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State 77–63 regular
2022-02-06 2022 Chicago State @ Tarleton State 54–57 regular
2022-01-30 2022 Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley 79–64 regular
2022-01-27 2022 Tarleton State @ Lamar 62–57 regular
2022-01-23 2022 Seattle U @ Tarleton State 76–68 regular
2022-01-21 2022 California Baptist @ Tarleton State 88–84 regular
2022-01-16 2022 Tarleton State @ Grand Canyon 59–80 regular
2022-01-14 2022 Tarleton State @ New Mexico State 57–73 regular
2022-01-09 2022 Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State 71–77 regular
2022-01-07 2022 Sam Houston @ Tarleton State 64–75 regular
2022-01-01 2022 Tarleton State @ Utah Valley 55–77 regular
2021-12-31 2022 Tarleton State @ Utah Tech 83–69 regular
2021-12-22 2022 Air Force @ Tarleton State 45–67 regular
2021-12-18 2022 South Alabama @ Tarleton State 52–65 regular
2021-12-15 2022 Tarleton State @ South Alabama 62–69 regular
2021-12-09 2022 Southwestern Assemblies of God @ Tarleton State 75–81 non_d1
2021-12-08 2022 Dallas Christian @ Tarleton State 65–84 non_d1
2021-12-06 2022 Charleston Southern @ Tarleton State 59–57 regular
2021-11-30 2022 Tarleton State @ Gonzaga 55–64 regular
2021-11-25 2022 Tarleton State @ Michigan 54–65 regular
2021-11-23 2022 Tarleton State @ North Dakota State 53–54 regular
2021-11-20 2022 Paul Quinn @ Tarleton State 42–69 non_d1
2021-11-17 2022 Tarleton State @ Wichita State 51–65 regular
2021-11-13 2022 Tarleton State @ Kansas 62–88 regular
2021-11-10 2022 Tarleton State @ Stanford 50–62 regular