cbb·system

Dayton Flyers

womens canonical name from espn_wbb Round of 64 (out) 2014

Ratings · 2014

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.05 points per possession 0.11
DE 0.87 points per possession 0.12
ME 0.18 points per possession 0.17
PACE 77.08 possessions per game 4.51

At season 2014's latest cutoff (2014-04-09 00:30), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Dayton AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2014. Axis spans 0.78 to 1.30 over 114 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2014

SeasonWLPct
2014238 0.742

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbDayton auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2014-03-23 2014 Florida @ Dayton N 83–69 ncaa_tournament
2014-03-09 2014 Fordham @ Dayton N 63–51 conf_tournament
2014-03-08 2014 George Washington @ Dayton N 68–89 conf_tournament
2014-03-07 2014 VCU @ Dayton N 61–62 conf_tournament
2014-03-01 2014 Dayton @ George Washington 79–88 regular
2014-02-26 2014 Saint Louis @ Dayton 58–67 regular
2014-02-23 2014 Saint Joseph's @ Dayton 56–82 regular
2014-02-20 2014 Dayton @ La Salle 84–69 regular
2014-02-17 2014 Dayton @ Saint Louis 90–74 regular
2014-02-15 2014 Richmond @ Dayton 58–69 regular
2014-02-13 2014 Dayton @ Rhode Island 73–66 regular
2014-02-09 2014 Dayton @ Duquesne 87–77 regular
2014-02-06 2014 VCU @ Dayton 69–73 regular
2014-02-01 2014 George Mason @ Dayton 81–103 regular
2014-01-26 2014 Dayton @ Saint Joseph's 63–75 regular
2014-01-23 2014 Dayton @ Massachusetts 81–67 regular
2014-01-19 2014 Fordham @ Dayton 64–73 regular
2014-01-17 2014 George Washington @ Dayton 69–90 regular
2014-01-11 2014 St. Bonaventure @ Dayton 59–73 regular
2014-01-09 2014 Dayton @ George Mason 91–64 regular
2014-01-05 2014 Dayton @ Saint Louis postponed regular
2014-01-03 2014 Wright State @ Dayton 85–112 regular
2013-12-31 2014 Central Michigan @ Dayton 89–102 regular
2013-12-22 2014 Dayton @ Toledo 87–75 regular
2013-12-18 2014 Dayton @ Providence 83–65 regular
2013-12-15 2014 Washington State @ Dayton 76–87 regular
2013-12-06 2014 Dayton @ Central Michigan 91–94 regular
2013-11-24 2014 Dayton @ Vanderbilt 52–82 regular
2013-11-17 2014 Dayton @ Michigan State 89–96 regular
2013-11-16 2014 Akron @ Dayton 80–94 regular
2013-11-10 2014 Dayton @ Iowa 93–97 regular
2013-11-09 2014 UC Riverside @ Dayton N 54–89 regular