cbb·system

Northwestern State Lady Demons

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2018

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.75 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.01 points per possession 0.12
ME -0.26 points per possession 0.19
PACE 66.65 possessions per game 4.96

At season 2018's latest cutoff (2018-04-01 22:00), with 25 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northwestern State AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2018. Axis spans 0.65 to 1.26 over 123 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2018

SeasonWLPct
2018722 0.241

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthwestern State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2018-03-03 2018 Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas 39–59 regular
2018-03-01 2018 Northwestern State @ Nicholls 53–85 regular
2018-02-24 2018 SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State 64–54 regular
2018-02-22 2018 Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 57–53 regular
2018-02-15 2018 Northwestern State @ Houston Christian 51–57 regular
2018-02-10 2018 Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin 48–83 regular
2018-02-08 2018 Northwestern State @ Lamar 44–71 regular
2018-02-03 2018 McNeese @ Northwestern State 60–44 regular
2018-02-01 2018 LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State 47–52 regular
2018-01-27 2018 Central Arkansas @ Northwestern State 61–53 regular
2018-01-25 2018 Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans 63–81 regular
2018-01-20 2018 Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana 65–71 regular
2018-01-18 2018 Sam Houston @ Northwestern State 60–63 regular
2018-01-13 2018 Northwestern State @ Abilene Christian 41–80 regular
2018-01-06 2018 Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State 70–62 regular
2018-01-04 2018 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State 62–56 regular
2017-12-30 2018 Northwestern State @ McNeese 67–72 regular
2017-12-29 2018 Nicholls @ Northwestern State 79–63 regular
2017-12-20 2018 Central Baptist @ Northwestern State 22–87 non_d1
2017-12-17 2018 Northwestern State @ TCU 51–89 regular
2017-12-14 2018 Northwestern State @ Texas 44–68 regular
2017-12-09 2018 Texas Southern @ Northwestern State N 56–43 regular
2017-12-03 2018 Northwestern State @ UL Monroe 70–48 regular
2017-11-29 2018 Southern Miss @ Northwestern State 71–59 regular
2017-11-22 2018 LSU Alexandria @ Northwestern State 55–85 non_d1
2017-11-19 2018 Northwestern State @ Oklahoma State 44–78 regular
2017-11-16 2018 LSU Shreveport @ Northwestern State 42–62 non_d1
2017-11-12 2018 LeTourneau @ Northwestern State 39–82 non_d1
2017-11-10 2018 Northwestern State @ Ole Miss 44–75 regular