cbb·system

Northwestern State Lady Demons

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2019

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.80 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.05 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.24 points per possession 0.19
PACE 73.38 possessions per game 4.66

At season 2019's latest cutoff (2019-04-07 22:00), with 25 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northwestern State AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2019. Axis spans -0.08 to 1.77 over 130 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2019

SeasonWLPct
20191118 0.379

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthwestern State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2019-03-09 2019 Central Arkansas @ Northwestern State 74–78 regular
2019-03-07 2019 Nicholls @ Northwestern State 89–67 regular
2019-03-02 2019 Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana 60–56 regular
2019-02-28 2019 Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word 91–100 regular
2019-02-22 2019 Houston Christian @ Northwestern State 46–63 regular
2019-02-16 2019 Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State 87–67 regular
2019-02-14 2019 Lamar @ Northwestern State 94–70 regular
2019-02-09 2019 Northwestern State @ McNeese 89–73 regular
2019-02-07 2019 Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans 73–84 regular
2019-02-02 2019 Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas 52–74 regular
2019-01-31 2019 LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State 67–62 regular
2019-01-26 2019 SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State 47–58 regular
2019-01-24 2019 Northwestern State @ Sam Houston 55–66 regular
2019-01-19 2019 Abilene Christian @ Northwestern State 72–63 regular
2019-01-12 2019 Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin 56–84 regular
2019-01-10 2019 Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 55–79 regular
2019-01-05 2019 McNeese @ Northwestern State 63–82 regular
2019-01-03 2019 Northwestern State @ Nicholls 86–97 regular
2018-12-29 2019 Northwestern State @ Texas 66–104 regular
2018-12-21 2019 Central Baptist @ Northwestern State 56–82 non_d1
2018-12-16 2019 Northwestern State @ Alabama 73–87 regular
2018-12-08 2019 Centenary (LA) @ Northwestern State 51–94 non_d1
2018-12-02 2019 UL Monroe @ Northwestern State 63–55 regular
2018-11-28 2019 Northwestern State @ Southern Miss 54–69 regular
2018-11-24 2019 Loyola New Orleans @ Northwestern State 66–71 non_d1
2018-11-21 2019 Alcorn State @ Northwestern State 65–78 regular
2018-11-16 2019 Northwestern State @ Oklahoma 56–93 regular
2018-11-12 2019 LeTourneau @ Northwestern State 40–100 non_d1
2018-11-09 2019 Northwestern State @ Arkansas 53–98 regular