Northwestern State Lady Demons
womens
canonical name from espn_wbb
Ratings · 2026
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 0.88 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| DE | 0.96 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| ME | -0.08 | points per possession | 0.18 |
| PACE | 66.37 | possessions per game | 4.68 |
At season 2026's latest cutoff
(2026-04-05 19:30),
with 31 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2026.
Axis spans 0.64 to 1.27 over
129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
25).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2026
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18 | 14 | 0.562 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| espn_wbb | Northwestern State | auto |