cbb·system

Duke Blue Devils

womens canonical name from espn_wbb Final Four (out) 2018

Ratings · 2018

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.11 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.78 points per possession 0.15
ME 0.33 points per possession 0.19
PACE 65.63 possessions per game 5.02

At season 2018's latest cutoff (2018-04-01 22:00), with 33 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Duke AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2018. Axis spans 55.17 to 77.85 over 123 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2018

SeasonWLPct
2018249 0.727

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbDuke auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2018-03-24 2018 Duke @ UConn N 59–72 ncaa_tournament
2018-03-19 2018 Duke @ Georgia N 66–40 ncaa_tournament
2018-03-17 2018 Belmont @ Duke N 58–72 ncaa_tournament
2018-03-02 2018 NC State @ Duke N 51–45 conf_tournament
2018-02-25 2018 North Carolina @ Duke 54–70 regular
2018-02-19 2018 Florida State @ Duke 66–79 regular
2018-02-16 2018 Duke @ Syracuse 65–68 regular
2018-02-11 2018 Duke @ Clemson 60–35 regular
2018-02-08 2018 Wake Forest @ Duke 51–59 regular
2018-02-04 2018 Notre Dame @ Duke 72–54 regular
2018-02-02 2018 Georgia Tech @ Duke 59–77 regular
2018-01-28 2018 Duke @ Pittsburgh 58–46 regular
2018-01-26 2018 Boston College @ Duke 50–75 regular
2018-01-21 2018 Duke @ North Carolina 86–92 regular
2018-01-19 2018 Duke @ Virginia Tech 86–75 regular
2018-01-14 2018 Virginia @ Duke 48–55 regular
2018-01-12 2018 Duke @ Wake Forest 80–67 regular
2018-01-07 2018 NC State @ Duke 56–69 regular
2018-01-05 2018 Duke @ Louisville 60–66 regular
2017-12-31 2018 Duke @ Miami 48–51 regular
2017-12-30 2018 Liberty @ Duke 51–68 regular
2017-12-22 2018 Wyoming @ Duke 40–63 regular
2017-12-20 2018 Maine @ Duke 39–69 regular
2017-12-10 2018 Winthrop @ Duke 30–101 regular
2017-12-08 2018 UNC Greensboro @ Duke 54–85 regular
2017-12-03 2018 Duke @ South Carolina 52–72 regular
2017-12-01 2018 Ohio State @ Duke 60–69 regular
2017-11-26 2018 Presbyterian @ Duke 45–79 regular
2017-11-25 2018 Oregon State @ Duke 65–72 regular
2017-11-23 2018 Duke @ Old Dominion 84–51 regular
2017-11-19 2018 Duke @ Villanova 55–64 regular
2017-11-17 2018 High Point @ Duke 50–77 regular
2017-11-12 2018 Duke @ Grand Canyon 74–61 regular