cbb·system

Northwestern State Demons

mens Southland canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2021

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.97 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.10 points per possession 0.12
ME -0.13 points per possession 0.18
PACE 71.24 possessions per game 4.38

At season 2021's latest cutoff (2021-04-04 00:47), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northwestern State AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2021. Axis spans 0.67 to 1.28 over 110 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2021

SeasonWLPct
20211118 0.379

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdNorthwestern State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2021-03-12 2021 Northwestern State @ Nicholls N 76–88 conf_tournament
2021-03-11 2021 New Orleans @ Northwestern State N 79–82 conf_tournament
2021-03-06 2021 Central Arkansas @ Northwestern State 70–79 regular
2021-03-04 2021 Northwestern State @ New Orleans 83–92 regular
2021-03-02 2021 Northwestern State @ Nicholls 71–87 regular
2021-02-27 2021 SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State 61–79 regular
2021-02-25 2021 Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State 83–57 regular
2021-02-23 2021 Houston Christian @ Northwestern State 80–86 regular
2021-02-18 2021 Northwestern State @ Nicholls scheduled regular
2021-02-13 2021 McNeese @ Northwestern State 66–69 regular
2021-02-11 2021 Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word 68–67 regular
2021-02-06 2021 Houston Christian @ Northwestern State scheduled regular
2021-01-30 2021 Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas 81–77 regular
2021-01-28 2021 New Orleans @ Northwestern State 73–81 regular
2021-01-23 2021 Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana 73–68 regular
2021-01-21 2021 Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin 74–86 regular
2021-01-14 2021 Nicholls @ Northwestern State 76–66 regular
2021-01-09 2021 Northwestern State @ McNeese 78–75 regular
2021-01-07 2021 Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State 75–67 regular
2021-01-03 2021 Northwestern State @ Houston Christian 93–99 regular
2020-12-23 2021 Northwestern State @ Washington State 52–62 regular
2020-12-23 2021 Northwestern State @ Gonzaga 78–95 regular
2020-12-22 2021 Northwestern State @ Gonzaga 57–95 regular
2020-12-20 2021 Northwestern State @ Missouri State 67–94 regular
2020-12-19 2021 Northwestern State @ Tulsa 55–82 regular
2020-12-12 2021 Champion Christian @ Northwestern State 44–77 non_d1
2020-12-06 2021 UL Monroe @ Northwestern State 92–83 regular
2020-12-04 2021 Northwestern State @ TCU 68–74 regular
2020-11-29 2021 Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech 77–91 regular
2020-11-28 2021 Northwestern State @ UT Arlington N 71–80 regular
2020-11-26 2021 Northwestern State @ Texas Tech 58–101 regular