North Carolina Tar Heels
womens
canonical name from espn_wbb
Sweet 16 (out) 2026
Ratings · 2026
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 1.16 | points per possession | 0.12 |
| DE | 0.73 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| ME | 0.43 | points per possession | 0.18 |
| PACE | 68.16 | possessions per game | 4.54 |
At season 2026's latest cutoff
(2026-04-05 19:30),
with 36 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2026.
Axis spans 0.86 to 1.43 over
129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
25).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2026
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 8 | 0.778 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| espn_wbb | North Carolina | auto |
Schedule & results
| Date | S | Matchup | Score | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2026 | North Carolina @ UConn N | 42–63 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026 | Maryland @ North Carolina | 66–74 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026 | Western Illinois @ North Carolina | 51–82 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Louisville N | 57–65 | conf_tournament |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 | Virginia Tech @ North Carolina N | 68–85 | conf_tournament |
| 2026-03-01 | 2026 | Duke @ North Carolina | 69–74 | regular |
| 2026-02-27 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Virginia | 82–70 | regular |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026 | Pittsburgh @ North Carolina | 50–78 | regular |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Virginia Tech | 66–63 | regular |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Duke | 68–72 | regular |
| 2026-02-12 | 2026 | SMU @ North Carolina | 42–94 | regular |
| 2026-02-08 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest | 84–56 | regular |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026 | Clemson @ North Carolina | 44–53 | regular |
| 2026-02-02 | 2026 | North Carolina @ NC State | 61–59 | regular |
| 2026-01-25 | 2026 | Syracuse @ North Carolina | 71–77 | regular |
| 2026-01-23 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Georgia Tech | 54–46 | regular |
| 2026-01-18 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Florida State | 82–55 | regular |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026 | Miami @ North Carolina | 62–73 | regular |
| 2026-01-11 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Notre Dame | 50–73 | regular |
| 2026-01-04 | 2026 | Stanford @ North Carolina | 77–71 | regular |
| 2026-01-01 | 2026 | California @ North Carolina | 55–71 | regular |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Boston College | 90–39 | regular |
| 2025-12-21 | 2026 | Charleston Southern @ North Carolina | 74–93 | regular |
| 2025-12-18 | 2026 | UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina | 34–84 | regular |
| 2025-12-14 | 2026 | Louisville @ North Carolina | 76–66 | regular |
| 2025-12-07 | 2026 | Boston University @ North Carolina | 40–82 | regular |
| 2025-12-05 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Texas | 64–79 | regular |
| 2025-11-29 | 2026 | North Carolina @ Columbia N | 80–63 | regular |
| 2025-11-28 | 2026 | Kansas State @ North Carolina N | 73–85 | regular |
| 2025-11-27 | 2026 | North Carolina @ South Dakota State N | 83–48 | regular |
| 2025-11-23 | 2026 | UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina | 48–94 | regular |
| 2025-11-21 | 2026 | North Carolina @ North Carolina A&T | 85–50 | regular |
| 2025-11-15 | 2026 | Fairfield @ North Carolina N | 68–82 | regular |
| 2025-11-14 | 2026 | North Carolina @ UCLA N | 60–78 | regular |
| 2025-11-07 | 2026 | Elon @ North Carolina | 37–71 | regular |
| 2025-11-03 | 2026 | North Carolina Central @ North Carolina | 42–90 | regular |