North Carolina Tar Heels
womens
canonical name from espn_wbb
Sweet 16 (out) 2025
Ratings · 2025
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 1.09 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| DE | 0.72 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| ME | 0.36 | points per possession | 0.19 |
| PACE | 67.49 | possessions per game | 4.86 |
At season 2025's latest cutoff
(2025-04-06 19:00),
with 37 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025.
Axis spans 56.20 to 143.91 over
130 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
25).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2025
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29 | 8 | 0.784 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| espn_wbb | North Carolina | auto |
Schedule & results
| Date | S | Matchup | Score | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-28 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Duke N | 38–47 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025 | West Virginia @ North Carolina | 47–58 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2025-03-22 | 2025 | Oregon State @ North Carolina | 49–70 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2025-03-08 | 2025 | North Carolina @ NC State N | 55–66 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-07 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Florida State N | 60–56 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-06 | 2025 | Boston College @ North Carolina N | 71–78 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-02 | 2025 | Virginia @ North Carolina | 78–75 | regular |
| 2025-02-28 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Duke | 53–68 | regular |
| 2025-02-23 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Louisville | 79–75 | regular |
| 2025-02-20 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Syracuse | 68–58 | regular |
| 2025-02-16 | 2025 | NC State @ North Carolina | 65–66 | regular |
| 2025-02-14 | 2025 | Virginia Tech @ North Carolina | 62–67 | regular |
| 2025-02-09 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Clemson | 53–51 | regular |
| 2025-02-02 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Stanford | 69–67 | regular |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025 | North Carolina @ California | 65–52 | regular |
| 2025-01-26 | 2025 | Florida State @ North Carolina | 86–84 | regular |
| 2025-01-24 | 2025 | Wake Forest @ North Carolina | 51–76 | regular |
| 2025-01-19 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | 75–58 | regular |
| 2025-01-17 | 2025 | North Carolina @ SMU | 64–33 | regular |
| 2025-01-12 | 2025 | Boston College @ North Carolina | 67–80 | regular |
| 2025-01-10 | 2025 | Duke @ North Carolina | 46–53 | regular |
| 2025-01-05 | 2025 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 76–66 | regular |
| 2024-12-29 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Miami | 69–60 | regular |
| 2024-12-21 | 2025 | Norfolk State @ North Carolina | 47–90 | regular |
| 2024-12-18 | 2025 | Florida @ North Carolina N | 57–77 | regular |
| 2024-12-15 | 2025 | Georgia Tech @ North Carolina | 82–76 | regular |
| 2024-12-12 | 2025 | UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina | 56–80 | regular |
| 2024-12-08 | 2025 | Coppin State @ North Carolina | 46–72 | regular |
| 2024-12-05 | 2025 | Kentucky @ North Carolina | 53–72 | regular |
| 2024-11-29 | 2025 | North Carolina Central @ North Carolina | 43–119 | regular |
| 2024-11-25 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Indiana N | 69–39 | regular |
| 2024-11-24 | 2025 | Villanova @ North Carolina N | 36–53 | regular |
| 2024-11-23 | 2025 | Ball State @ North Carolina N | 52–63 | regular |
| 2024-11-15 | 2025 | UConn @ North Carolina N | 69–58 | regular |
| 2024-11-13 | 2025 | North Carolina @ North Carolina A&T | 66–47 | regular |
| 2024-11-08 | 2025 | UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina | 50–77 | regular |
| 2024-11-04 | 2025 | Charleston Southern @ North Carolina | 53–83 | regular |