cbb·system

Northern Colorado Bears

womens canonical name from espn_wbb Round of 64 (out) 2018

Ratings · 2018

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.05 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.91 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.13 points per possession 0.18
PACE 66.84 possessions per game 4.94

At season 2018's latest cutoff (2018-04-01 22:00), with 33 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northern Colorado AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2018. Axis spans 0.74 to 1.29 over 123 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2018

SeasonWLPct
2018267 0.788

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthern Colorado auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2018-03-16 2018 Northern Colorado @ Michigan N 61–75 ncaa_tournament
2018-03-10 2018 Idaho @ Northern Colorado N 69–91 conf_tournament
2018-03-09 2018 Idaho State @ Northern Colorado N 66–73 conf_tournament
2018-03-07 2018 Montana @ Northern Colorado N 69–78 conf_tournament
2018-03-03 2018 Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado 68–90 regular
2018-03-01 2018 Portland State @ Northern Colorado 60–63 regular
2018-02-24 2018 North Dakota @ Northern Colorado 45–51 regular
2018-02-17 2018 Northern Colorado @ Southern Utah 60–54 regular
2018-02-16 2018 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona 85–63 regular
2018-02-10 2018 Weber State @ Northern Colorado 69–71 regular
2018-02-08 2018 Idaho State @ Northern Colorado 52–75 regular
2018-02-03 2018 Northern Colorado @ Montana State 78–63 regular
2018-02-02 2018 Northern Colorado @ Montana 64–58 regular
2018-01-27 2018 Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado 62–68 regular
2018-01-26 2018 Idaho @ Northern Colorado 79–71 regular
2018-01-20 2018 Northern Colorado @ North Dakota 70–78 regular
2018-01-13 2018 Northern Colorado @ Idaho State 63–57 regular
2018-01-12 2018 Northern Colorado @ Weber State 73–82 regular
2018-01-06 2018 Montana @ Northern Colorado 50–68 regular
2018-01-05 2018 Montana State @ Northern Colorado 69–82 regular
2017-12-30 2018 Northern Colorado @ Idaho 78–72 regular
2017-12-29 2018 Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington 70–65 regular
2017-12-20 2018 Liberty @ Northern Colorado N 57–65 regular
2017-12-19 2018 Northern Colorado @ Kansas City 88–73 regular
2017-12-10 2018 Colorado State @ Northern Colorado 55–44 regular
2017-12-03 2018 Pacific @ Northern Colorado 55–80 regular
2017-12-01 2018 BYU @ Northern Colorado 74–79 regular
2017-11-25 2018 Northern Colorado @ Fordham 33–48 regular
2017-11-22 2018 Northern Colorado @ Quinnipiac 49–60 regular
2017-11-19 2018 San Francisco @ Northern Colorado 60–73 regular
2017-11-16 2018 LSU @ Northern Colorado 50–58 regular
2017-11-12 2018 Northern Colorado @ Denver 71–63 regular
2017-11-11 2018 Northern Colorado @ DePaul 94–88 regular