cbb·system

Merrimack Warriors

mens NEC canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2025

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.01 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.04 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.03 points per possession 0.19
PACE 64.73 possessions per game 4.46

At season 2025's latest cutoff (2025-04-08 00:50), with 33 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Merrimack AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025. Axis spans 53.57 to 74.21 over 135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2025

SeasonWLPct
20251815 0.545

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdMerrimack auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2025-03-15 2025 Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack N 57–55 conf_tournament
2025-03-13 2025 Sacred Heart @ Merrimack N 62–66 conf_tournament
2025-03-07 2025 Merrimack @ Marist 75–53 regular
2025-03-02 2025 Quinnipiac @ Merrimack 63–73 regular
2025-03-01 2025 Rider @ Merrimack 83–78 regular
2025-02-23 2025 Merrimack @ Iona 77–70 regular
2025-02-22 2025 Sacred Heart @ Merrimack 60–59 regular
2025-02-16 2025 Marist @ Merrimack 61–60 regular
2025-02-15 2025 Merrimack @ Manhattan 75–79 regular
2025-02-08 2025 Canisius @ Merrimack 51–69 regular
2025-02-07 2025 Niagara @ Merrimack 59–64 regular
2025-02-02 2025 Merrimack @ Rider 66–64 regular
2025-02-01 2025 Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack 66–58 regular
2025-01-26 2025 Merrimack @ Fairfield 75–54 regular
2025-01-24 2025 Merrimack @ Saint Peter's 48–37 regular
2025-01-18 2025 Siena @ Merrimack 58–64 regular
2025-01-17 2025 Merrimack @ Quinnipiac 76–81 regular
2025-01-12 2025 Manhattan @ Merrimack 62–69 regular
2025-01-10 2025 Merrimack @ Sacred Heart 66–65 regular
2025-01-03 2025 Fairfield @ Merrimack 54–67 regular
2024-12-20 2025 Merrimack @ Saint Mary's 68–73 regular
2024-12-18 2025 Merrimack @ Stanford 68–74 regular
2024-12-14 2025 Boston University @ Merrimack 61–64 regular
2024-12-08 2025 Merrimack @ Niagara 80–62 regular
2024-12-07 2025 Merrimack @ Canisius 60–52 regular
2024-11-29 2025 Merrimack @ Troy 72–68 regular
2024-11-27 2025 UTSA @ Merrimack N 76–74 regular
2024-11-25 2025 Merrimack @ UMass Lowell 74–81 regular
2024-11-23 2025 Merrimack @ Butler 39–78 regular
2024-11-21 2025 Merrimack @ Rutgers 63–74 regular
2024-11-17 2025 Princeton @ Merrimack 68–57 regular
2024-11-14 2025 Merrimack @ VCU 42–63 regular
2024-11-10 2025 Vermont @ Merrimack 51–65 regular