cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2020

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.84 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.93 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.09 points per possession 0.19
PACE 65.20 possessions per game 4.72

At season 2020's latest cutoff (2020-03-12 18:00), with 28 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2020. Axis spans 0.49 to 1.11 over 107 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2020

SeasonWLPct
20201118 0.379

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2020-03-13 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Davis N canceled conf_tournament
2020-03-12 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine N 70–49 conf_tournament
2020-03-11 2020 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 59–48 conf_tournament
2020-03-08 2020 Cal Poly @ Hawai'i 58–75 regular
2020-02-29 2020 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 43–53 regular
2020-02-27 2020 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 52–56 regular
2020-02-22 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 51–54 regular
2020-02-21 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside 62–52 regular
2020-02-15 2020 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly 67–60 regular
2020-02-13 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Davis 58–71 regular
2020-02-08 2020 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly 41–61 regular
2020-02-07 2020 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 59–46 regular
2020-02-02 2020 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 52–41 regular
2020-01-31 2020 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 64–65 regular
2020-01-25 2020 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 42–36 regular
2020-01-24 2020 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 70–75 regular
2020-01-18 2020 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 68–57 regular
2020-01-11 2020 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara 50–52 regular
2020-01-10 2020 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 69–72 regular
2020-01-03 2020 Holy Names University @ Cal Poly 35–100 non_d1
2019-12-28 2020 Cal Poly @ Nevada 40–71 regular
2019-12-20 2020 Seattle U @ Cal Poly 72–49 regular
2019-12-07 2020 Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's 67–84 regular
2019-11-30 2020 Lamar @ Cal Poly 56–57 regular
2019-11-29 2020 Old Dominion @ Cal Poly 61–55 regular
2019-11-25 2020 Cal Poly @ Arizona State 41–66 regular
2019-11-20 2020 Sacramento State @ Cal Poly 43–62 regular
2019-11-17 2020 Cal Poly @ Denver 66–96 regular
2019-11-10 2020 Cal Poly @ Pepperdine 53–63 regular
2019-11-07 2020 Fresno State @ Cal Poly 79–52 regular