cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2022

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.81 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.02 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.21 points per possession 0.18
PACE 70.09 possessions per game 4.29

At season 2022's latest cutoff (2022-04-04 00:00), with 29 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2022. Axis spans 0.46 to 1.14 over 124 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2022

SeasonWLPct
2022322 0.120

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2022-03-08 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton N 64–70 conf_tournament
2022-03-06 2022 Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 48–90 regular
2022-03-04 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 66–67 regular
2022-02-26 2022 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 73–49 regular
2022-02-23 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield 71–85 regular
2022-02-19 2022 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 59–53 regular
2022-02-18 2022 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 85–55 regular
2022-02-13 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara 40–73 regular
2022-02-11 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 56–55 regular
2022-02-05 2022 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly 65–64 regular
2022-02-04 2022 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly 52–61 regular
2022-01-29 2022 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 64–52 regular
2022-01-28 2022 UC San Diego @ Cal Poly 69–58 regular
2022-01-19 2022 Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly canceled regular
2022-01-15 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Davis canceled regular
2022-01-14 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside canceled regular
2022-01-08 2022 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 54–45 regular
2022-01-07 2022 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 63–42 regular
2022-01-01 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton canceled regular
2021-12-31 2022 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 54–76 regular
2021-12-21 2022 California Baptist @ Cal Poly 66–64 regular
2021-12-18 2022 Cal Poly @ California 73–89 regular
2021-12-14 2022 Cal Poly @ Northern Arizona 73–88 regular
2021-12-04 2022 Denver @ Cal Poly 75–63 regular
2021-12-02 2022 Nevada @ Cal Poly 61–53 regular
2021-11-27 2022 Montana State @ Cal Poly 67–55 regular
2021-11-26 2022 St. Thomas @ Cal Poly 51–63 regular
2021-11-24 2022 Louisville @ Cal Poly 72–32 regular
2021-11-11 2022 Cal Poly @ Santa Clara 77–91 regular