cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

mens Big West canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2025

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.12 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.14 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.02 points per possession 0.18
PACE 73.95 possessions per game 4.08

At season 2025's latest cutoff (2025-04-08 00:50), with 34 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025. Axis spans 0.70 to 1.40 over 135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2025

SeasonWLPct
20251619 0.457

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2025-03-15 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine N 78–96 conf_tournament
2025-03-14 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside N 96–83 conf_tournament
2025-03-13 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Davis N 86–76 conf_tournament
2025-03-09 2025 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 83–69 regular
2025-03-07 2025 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly 61–100 regular
2025-03-01 2025 Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly 72–98 regular
2025-02-28 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara 77–96 regular
2025-02-22 2025 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 100–112 regular
2025-02-21 2025 UC San Diego @ Cal Poly 81–67 regular
2025-02-16 2025 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 85–89 regular
2025-02-14 2025 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 98–83 regular
2025-02-07 2025 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 63–79 regular
2025-02-02 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside 62–80 regular
2025-01-31 2025 Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield 90–81 regular
2025-01-25 2025 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly 69–78 regular
2025-01-19 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 71–101 regular
2025-01-17 2025 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 65–54 regular
2025-01-12 2025 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 75–72 regular
2025-01-10 2025 Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 68–95 regular
2025-01-05 2025 Cal Poly @ Hawai'i 55–68 regular
2025-01-03 2025 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 98–89 regular
2024-12-22 2025 Cal Poly @ Omaha 82–86 regular
2024-12-18 2025 Denver @ Cal Poly 94–95 regular
2024-12-15 2025 Cal Poly @ San José State 100–107 regular
2024-12-08 2025 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 102–91 regular
2024-12-06 2025 Cal Poly @ UC Davis 66–77 regular
2024-12-01 2025 Cal Poly @ Stanford 97–90 regular
2024-11-27 2025 Grambling @ Cal Poly 79–82 regular
2024-11-24 2025 Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's 66–80 regular
2024-11-21 2025 Cal Poly @ Arizona State 89–93 regular
2024-11-18 2025 Cal Poly @ Eastern Washington 82–78 regular
2024-11-15 2025 Seattle U @ Cal Poly 71–75 regular
2024-11-11 2025 Menlo @ Cal Poly 66–99 non_d1
2024-11-08 2025 Cal Poly @ California 73–91 regular
2024-11-06 2025 Cal Poly @ San Francisco 78–86 regular