cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

mens Big West canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2024

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.94 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.14 points per possession 0.12
ME -0.19 points per possession 0.18
PACE 65.74 possessions per game 4.63

At season 2024's latest cutoff (2024-04-09 01:20), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2024. Axis spans 0.63 to 1.26 over 135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2024

SeasonWLPct
2024428 0.125

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2024-03-10 2024 Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 87–92 regular
2024-03-08 2024 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 68–82 regular
2024-03-03 2024 Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly 68–56 regular
2024-03-01 2024 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara 75–83 regular
2024-02-25 2024 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 84–78 regular
2024-02-23 2024 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 50–68 regular
2024-02-16 2024 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 80–51 regular
2024-02-11 2024 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 68–77 regular
2024-02-09 2024 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 65–78 regular
2024-02-03 2024 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 59–52 regular
2024-02-02 2024 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 73–59 regular
2024-01-28 2024 Cal Poly @ Hawai'i 73–83 regular
2024-01-26 2024 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly 54–51 regular
2024-01-21 2024 Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield 53–65 regular
2024-01-14 2024 UC San Diego @ Cal Poly 86–61 regular
2024-01-12 2024 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside 56–71 regular
2024-01-07 2024 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 61–52 regular
2024-01-05 2024 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly 89–82 regular
2023-12-30 2024 Cal Poly @ UC Davis 46–71 regular
2023-12-29 2024 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 83–73 regular
2023-12-22 2024 Omaha @ Cal Poly 53–66 regular
2023-12-19 2024 Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly 62–53 regular
2023-12-10 2024 Cal Poly @ Weber State 50–78 regular
2023-12-05 2024 Cal Poly @ Oregon State 63–70 regular
2023-12-02 2024 Cal Poly @ Idaho 70–85 regular
2023-11-30 2024 San José State @ Cal Poly 77–81 regular
2023-11-20 2024 Cal Poly @ California Baptist 58–67 regular
2023-11-18 2024 Cal Poly @ Portland State N 57–73 regular
2023-11-18 2024 Cal Poly @ St. Thomas-Minnesota N 61–60 regular
2023-11-12 2024 Cal Poly @ Wyoming 66–80 regular
2023-11-10 2024 Cal Poly @ Denver 76–97 regular
2023-11-07 2024 La Verne @ Cal Poly 62–80 non_d1