cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

mens Big West canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2022

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.92 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.07 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.15 points per possession 0.19
PACE 64.92 possessions per game 4.62

At season 2022's latest cutoff (2022-04-05 01:20), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2022. Axis spans 53.97 to 75.29 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2022

SeasonWLPct
2022721 0.250

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2022-03-09 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Davis N 53–63 conf_tournament
2022-03-06 2022 UC San Diego @ Cal Poly 76–80 regular
2022-03-04 2022 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 54–65 regular
2022-02-25 2022 Cal Poly @ Hawai'i 54–63 regular
2022-02-23 2022 Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly 61–60 regular
2022-02-20 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside 58–78 regular
2022-02-18 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Davis canceled regular
2022-02-13 2022 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 69–64 regular
2022-02-11 2022 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 83–78 regular
2022-02-06 2022 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 65–78 regular
2022-02-04 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 50–61 regular
2022-01-30 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 48–72 regular
2022-01-28 2022 Cal Poly @ UC San Diego 59–55 regular
2022-01-23 2022 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 69–56 regular
2022-01-19 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield 60–73 regular
2022-01-16 2022 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 74–82 regular
2022-01-14 2022 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 57–46 regular
2022-01-08 2022 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 55–68 regular
2022-01-07 2022 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara canceled regular
2022-01-02 2022 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly canceled regular
2021-12-31 2022 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly canceled regular
2021-12-23 2022 Cal Poly @ UCLA canceled regular
2021-12-18 2022 Cal Poly @ Fresno State 48–83 regular
2021-12-14 2022 Cal Poly @ Portland 77–78 regular
2021-12-12 2022 Cal Poly @ Portland State 61–58 regular
2021-12-05 2022 Cal Poly @ San Diego 51–52 regular
2021-12-03 2022 Cal Poly @ California Baptist 55–64 regular
2021-11-24 2022 Idaho @ Cal Poly N 63–67 regular
2021-11-22 2022 Nicholls @ Cal Poly N 75–72 regular
2021-11-20 2022 Cal Poly @ Santa Clara 57–87 regular
2021-11-16 2022 Sacramento State @ Cal Poly 58–57 regular
2021-11-12 2022 North Dakota State @ Cal Poly 60–57 regular
2021-11-10 2022 Westcliff @ Cal Poly 53–86 non_d1