cbb·system

UCF Knights

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2020

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.01 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.79 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.22 points per possession 0.18
PACE 66.33 possessions per game 4.71

At season 2020's latest cutoff (2020-03-12 18:00), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

UCF AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2020. Axis spans 0.51 to 1.15 over 107 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2020

SeasonWLPct
20202010 0.667

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbUCF auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2020-03-08 2020 Cincinnati @ UCF N 57–51 conf_tournament
2020-03-07 2020 Wichita State @ UCF N 32–65 conf_tournament
2020-03-03 2020 Wichita State @ UCF 50–95 regular
2020-02-29 2020 UCF @ Memphis 67–59 regular
2020-02-26 2020 Temple @ UCF 64–67 regular
2020-02-22 2020 UCF @ UConn 53–66 regular
2020-02-19 2020 South Florida @ UCF 48–56 regular
2020-02-15 2020 Cincinnati @ UCF 42–49 regular
2020-02-13 2020 UCF @ Houston 67–49 regular
2020-02-06 2020 UCF @ Tulsa 62–49 regular
2020-02-01 2020 SMU @ UCF 57–67 regular
2020-01-30 2020 UCF @ Temple 65–67 regular
2020-01-25 2020 Memphis @ UCF 66–82 regular
2020-01-23 2020 UCF @ Tulane 59–60 regular
2020-01-19 2020 UCF @ South Florida 64–57 regular
2020-01-16 2020 UConn @ UCF 59–52 regular
2020-01-12 2020 UCF @ Cincinnati 64–81 regular
2020-01-05 2020 East Carolina @ UCF 55–91 regular
2019-12-30 2020 Central Michigan @ UCF 58–64 regular
2019-12-21 2020 Wright State @ UCF 53–69 regular
2019-12-20 2020 Saint Mary's @ UCF 58–67 regular
2019-12-17 2020 Quinnipiac @ UCF 58–80 regular
2019-12-01 2020 James Madison @ UCF N 46–43 regular
2019-11-30 2020 UCF @ UCLA N 56–61 regular
2019-11-27 2020 Stetson @ UCF 40–66 regular
2019-11-24 2020 Delaware @ UCF 49–75 regular
2019-11-16 2020 UCF @ Stephen F. Austin 63–57 regular
2019-11-14 2020 UCF @ Florida Gulf Coast 50–72 regular
2019-11-10 2020 UCF @ Belmont 37–72 regular
2019-11-06 2020 Pittsburgh @ UCF 58–74 regular