cbb·system

UCF Knights

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2025

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.01 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.95 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.07 points per possession 0.19
PACE 69.49 possessions per game 4.79

At season 2025's latest cutoff (2025-04-06 19:00), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

UCF AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025. Axis spans 59.52 to 141.10 over 130 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2025

SeasonWLPct
20251218 0.400

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbUCF auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2025-03-06 2025 UCF @ Kansas State N 65–80 conf_tournament
2025-03-05 2025 UCF @ BYU N 81–69 conf_tournament
2025-03-02 2025 UCF @ Houston 73–61 regular
2025-02-26 2025 Iowa State @ UCF 98–73 regular
2025-02-22 2025 Texas Tech @ UCF 60–61 regular
2025-02-19 2025 UCF @ Kansas 58–63 regular
2025-02-15 2025 UCF @ Kansas State 67–97 regular
2025-02-13 2025 Arizona State @ UCF 76–85 regular
2025-02-08 2025 UCF @ Utah 51–95 regular
2025-02-06 2025 UCF @ BYU 66–73 regular
2025-02-01 2025 Houston @ UCF 56–70 regular
2025-01-30 2025 Baylor @ UCF 75–64 regular
2025-01-25 2025 UCF @ Iowa State 56–90 regular
2025-01-18 2025 Oklahoma State @ UCF 72–58 regular
2025-01-15 2025 UCF @ TCU 81–90 regular
2025-01-11 2025 Cincinnati @ UCF 64–58 regular
2025-01-09 2025 UCF @ Colorado 62–81 regular
2025-01-04 2025 Arizona @ UCF 75–53 regular
2025-01-01 2025 UCF @ West Virginia 58–80 regular
2024-12-21 2025 TCU @ UCF 92–52 regular
2024-12-18 2025 High Point @ UCF 64–60 regular
2024-12-07 2025 UCF @ Texas Southern 93–87 regular
2024-11-29 2025 Montana State @ UCF N 76–68 regular
2024-11-27 2025 UCF @ UNLV 52–71 regular
2024-11-24 2025 Florida A&M @ UCF 55–80 regular
2024-11-23 2025 SIU Edwardsville @ UCF 71–81 regular
2024-11-19 2025 North Florida @ UCF 53–82 regular
2024-11-16 2025 Stetson @ UCF 58–89 regular
2024-11-08 2025 Marquette @ UCF 50–57 regular
2024-11-06 2025 Iona @ UCF 44–76 regular