cbb·system

Illinois State Redbirds

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2014

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.03 points per possession 0.11
DE 0.92 points per possession 0.12
ME 0.11 points per possession 0.16
PACE 66.48 possessions per game 5.01

At season 2014's latest cutoff (2014-04-09 00:30), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Illinois State AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2014. Axis spans 0.55 to 1.15 over 114 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2014

SeasonWLPct
20141020 0.333

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbIllinois State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2014-03-15 2014 Illinois State @ Wichita State N 50–66 conf_tournament
2014-03-15 2014 Illinois State @ Northern Iowa N 65–63 conf_tournament
2014-03-08 2014 Illinois State @ Drake 66–67 regular
2014-03-07 2014 Illinois State @ Northern Iowa 70–89 regular
2014-03-02 2014 Loyola Chicago @ Illinois State 61–69 regular
2014-02-28 2014 Bradley @ Illinois State 59–58 regular
2014-02-23 2014 Illinois State @ Missouri State 66–57 regular
2014-02-22 2014 Illinois State @ Wichita State 66–85 regular
2014-02-16 2014 Southern Illinois @ Illinois State 63–68 regular
2014-02-15 2014 Evansville @ Illinois State 75–62 regular
2014-02-08 2014 Indiana State @ Illinois State 50–53 regular
2014-02-02 2014 Illinois State @ Bradley 62–64 regular
2014-02-01 2014 Illinois State @ Loyola Chicago 65–54 regular
2014-01-28 2014 Missouri State @ Illinois State 75–72 regular
2014-01-25 2014 Wichita State @ Illinois State 74–58 regular
2014-01-19 2014 Illinois State @ Evansville 78–54 regular
2014-01-18 2014 Illinois State @ Southern Illinois 76–59 regular
2014-01-12 2014 Illinois State @ Indiana State 44–47 regular
2014-01-05 2014 Northern Iowa @ Illinois State 83–63 regular
2014-01-04 2014 Drake @ Illinois State 71–80 regular
2013-12-31 2014 Denver @ Illinois State 67–60 regular
2013-12-22 2014 Illinois State @ Milwaukee 58–73 regular
2013-12-19 2014 Illinois State @ Princeton 39–65 regular
2013-12-15 2014 Illinois State @ Fordham 32–57 regular
2013-12-08 2014 UT Martin @ Illinois State canceled regular
2013-12-06 2014 Northern Illinois @ Illinois State 57–52 regular
2013-11-30 2014 Illinois State @ Penn State N 60–72 regular
2013-11-29 2014 Illinois State @ Florida N 68–64 regular
2013-11-23 2014 Colorado State @ Illinois State 76–61 regular
2013-11-19 2014 Illinois State @ DePaul 67–80 regular
2013-11-14 2014 Illinois State @ Northern Kentucky 48–61 regular