cbb·system

Troy Trojans

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2018

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.97 points per possession 0.12
DE 1.01 points per possession 0.12
ME -0.04 points per possession 0.17
PACE 80.99 possessions per game 4.33

At season 2018's latest cutoff (2018-04-01 22:00), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Troy AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2018. Axis spans 0.70 to 1.26 over 123 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2018

SeasonWLPct
20181813 0.581

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbTroy auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2018-03-10 2018 Troy @ Little Rock N 63–66 conf_tournament
2018-03-08 2018 South Alabama @ Troy N 79–82 conf_tournament
2018-03-03 2018 Troy @ Georgia Southern 95–80 regular
2018-03-01 2018 Troy @ Georgia State 78–85 regular
2018-02-24 2018 UL Monroe @ Troy 62–94 regular
2018-02-22 2018 Louisiana @ Troy 53–72 regular
2018-02-17 2018 Troy @ App State 93–64 regular
2018-02-15 2018 Troy @ Coastal Carolina 71–84 regular
2018-02-10 2018 Little Rock @ Troy 70–76 regular
2018-02-08 2018 Arkansas State @ Troy 78–95 regular
2018-02-03 2018 South Alabama @ Troy 71–82 regular
2018-01-27 2018 Troy @ Louisiana 62–55 regular
2018-01-25 2018 Troy @ UL Monroe 86–79 regular
2018-01-22 2018 App State @ Troy 74–81 regular
2018-01-20 2018 Coastal Carolina @ Troy 97–92 regular
2018-01-18 2018 App State @ Troy postponed regular
2018-01-13 2018 Troy @ South Alabama 68–79 regular
2018-01-06 2018 Troy @ Texas State 75–83 regular
2018-01-04 2018 Troy @ UT Arlington 57–76 regular
2017-12-31 2018 Georgia State @ Troy 86–90 regular
2017-12-29 2018 Georgia Southern @ Troy 47–88 regular
2017-12-22 2018 Troy @ Samford N 76–82 regular
2017-12-21 2018 Troy @ Tulane 75–106 regular
2017-12-17 2018 Troy @ Samford 73–80 regular
2017-12-15 2018 Troy @ Middle Tennessee 57–73 regular
2017-12-09 2018 Montevallo @ Troy 50–130 non_d1
2017-12-07 2018 Troy @ Tennessee 69–131 regular
2017-12-02 2018 Jacksonville @ Troy 88–89 regular
2017-11-28 2018 Troy @ Tennessee State 95–66 regular
2017-11-21 2018 Troy @ Ole Miss 93–96 regular
2017-11-17 2018 Troy @ Alabama State 93–63 regular
2017-11-10 2018 Stillman @ Troy 62–89 non_d1