cbb·system

Fresno State Bulldogs

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.89 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.96 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.06 points per possession 0.18
PACE 64.34 possessions per game 4.71

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-02 19:30), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Fresno State AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans 51.65 to 139.24 over 125 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
20231022 0.312

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbFresno State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-05 2023 Fresno State @ Nevada N 53–65 conf_tournament
2023-03-01 2023 New Mexico @ Fresno State 88–68 regular
2023-02-25 2023 Fresno State @ San José State 66–73 regular
2023-02-19 2023 Nevada @ Fresno State 55–58 regular
2023-02-17 2023 Fresno State @ Utah State 76–61 regular
2023-02-12 2023 Colorado State @ Fresno State 61–54 regular
2023-02-10 2023 Fresno State @ UNLV 63–64 regular
2023-02-04 2023 Boise State @ Fresno State 66–61 regular
2023-02-03 2023 Air Force @ Fresno State 74–59 regular
2023-01-27 2023 Fresno State @ San Diego State 56–75 regular
2023-01-21 2023 Fresno State @ Nevada 69–75 regular
2023-01-20 2023 Fresno State @ Boise State 53–60 regular
2023-01-17 2023 Utah State @ Fresno State 68–58 regular
2023-01-14 2023 Fresno State @ Air Force 68–71 regular
2023-01-12 2023 San Diego State @ Fresno State 49–43 regular
2023-01-07 2023 San José State @ Fresno State 51–65 regular
2023-01-06 2023 UNLV @ Fresno State 64–49 regular
2023-01-01 2023 Fresno State @ Wyoming 72–77 regular
2022-12-30 2023 Fresno State @ Colorado State 58–64 regular
2022-12-21 2023 Fresno State @ UCLA 48–82 regular
2022-12-17 2023 Utah Valley @ Fresno State 48–53 regular
2022-12-11 2023 UC Irvine @ Fresno State 44–53 regular
2022-12-09 2023 Northern Arizona @ Fresno State 63–68 regular
2022-12-03 2023 Fresno State @ Sacramento State 61–62 regular
2022-12-02 2023 Fresno State @ Portland State 60–62 regular
2022-11-26 2023 Penn State @ Fresno State N 68–49 regular
2022-11-25 2023 Fresno State @ Delaware N 53–49 regular
2022-11-22 2023 UC Merced @ Fresno State 28–71 non_d1
2022-11-19 2023 Cal Poly @ Fresno State 48–47 regular
2022-11-16 2023 UC Riverside @ Fresno State 40–54 regular
2022-11-12 2023 Cal State Bakersfield @ Fresno State 56–53 regular
2022-11-08 2023 Fresno Pacific @ Fresno State 49–66 non_d1