North Carolina Tar Heels
mens
ACC
canonical name from espn_mbb
#11 Round of 64 (out) 2025
Ratings · 2025
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 1.22 | points per possession | 0.12 |
| DE | 0.99 | points per possession | 0.14 |
| ME | 0.23 | points per possession | 0.19 |
| PACE | 69.53 | possessions per game | 4.30 |
At season 2025's latest cutoff
(2025-04-08 00:50),
with 37 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025.
Axis spans -0.18 to 0.81 over
135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
18).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2025
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | 14 | 0.622 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| cbbd | North Carolina | auto |
Schedule & results
| Date | S | Matchup | Score | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-21 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Ole Miss N | 64–71 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025 | North Carolina @ San Diego State N | 95–68 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2025-03-14 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Duke N | 71–74 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-13 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest N | 68–59 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-12 | 2025 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina N | 56–76 | conf_tournament |
| 2025-03-08 | 2025 | Duke @ North Carolina | 82–69 | regular |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Virginia Tech | 91–59 | regular |
| 2025-03-01 | 2025 | Miami @ North Carolina | 73–92 | regular |
| 2025-02-25 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Florida State | 96–85 | regular |
| 2025-02-22 | 2025 | Virginia @ North Carolina | 66–81 | regular |
| 2025-02-20 | 2025 | NC State @ North Carolina | 73–97 | regular |
| 2025-02-15 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Syracuse | 88–82 | regular |
| 2025-02-11 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Clemson | 65–85 | regular |
| 2025-02-08 | 2025 | Pittsburgh @ North Carolina | 66–67 | regular |
| 2025-02-01 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Duke | 70–87 | regular |
| 2025-01-29 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | 65–73 | regular |
| 2025-01-25 | 2025 | Boston College @ North Carolina | 96–102 | regular |
| 2025-01-22 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest | 66–67 | regular |
| 2025-01-18 | 2025 | Stanford @ North Carolina | 72–71 | regular |
| 2025-01-16 | 2025 | California @ North Carolina | 53–79 | regular |
| 2025-01-11 | 2025 | North Carolina @ NC State | 63–61 | regular |
| 2025-01-08 | 2025 | SMU @ North Carolina | 67–82 | regular |
| 2025-01-04 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Notre Dame | 74–73 | regular |
| 2025-01-01 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Louisville | 70–83 | regular |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025 | Campbell @ North Carolina | 81–97 | regular |
| 2024-12-21 | 2025 | North Carolina @ UCLA N | 76–74 | regular |
| 2024-12-18 | 2025 | Florida @ North Carolina N | 90–84 | regular |
| 2024-12-14 | 2025 | La Salle @ North Carolina | 67–93 | regular |
| 2024-12-07 | 2025 | Georgia Tech @ North Carolina | 65–68 | regular |
| 2024-12-05 | 2025 | Alabama @ North Carolina | 94–79 | regular |
| 2024-11-28 | 2025 | Michigan State @ North Carolina N | 94–91 | regular |
| 2024-11-27 | 2025 | Auburn @ North Carolina N | 85–72 | regular |
| 2024-11-26 | 2025 | Dayton @ North Carolina N | 90–92 | regular |
| 2024-11-23 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Hawai'i | 87–69 | regular |
| 2024-11-16 | 2025 | American University @ North Carolina | 55–107 | regular |
| 2024-11-09 | 2025 | North Carolina @ Kansas | 89–92 | regular |
| 2024-11-05 | 2025 | Elon @ North Carolina | 76–90 | regular |