cbb·system

Troy Trojans

mens Sun Belt canonical name from espn_mbb #14 Round of 64 (out) 2025

Ratings · 2025

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.11 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.02 points per possession 0.14
ME 0.09 points per possession 0.19
PACE 65.16 possessions per game 4.46

At season 2025's latest cutoff (2025-04-08 00:50), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Troy AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025. Axis spans -0.34 to 0.47 over 135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2025

SeasonWLPct
20252311 0.676

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdTroy auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2025-03-21 2025 Troy @ Kentucky N 57–76 ncaa_tournament
2025-03-10 2025 Arkansas State @ Troy N 81–94 conf_tournament
2025-03-10 2025 Troy @ James Madison N 79–60 conf_tournament
2025-03-09 2025 Old Dominion @ Troy N 59–75 conf_tournament
2025-03-01 2025 Troy @ Southern Miss 70–58 regular
2025-02-26 2025 Troy @ Texas State 74–69 regular
2025-02-22 2025 Coastal Carolina @ Troy 66–83 regular
2025-02-21 2025 Louisiana @ Troy 72–69 regular
2025-02-16 2025 Troy @ Arkansas State 71–70 regular
2025-02-13 2025 Troy @ Louisiana 74–56 regular
2025-02-08 2025 Troy @ Miami (OH) 62–69 regular
2025-02-06 2025 Troy @ James Madison 61–64 regular
2025-02-01 2025 UL Monroe @ Troy 50–87 regular
2025-01-31 2025 Georgia Southern @ Troy 74–81 regular
2025-01-27 2025 Southern Miss @ Troy 61–70 regular
2025-01-25 2025 South Alabama @ Troy 55–65 regular
2025-01-18 2025 Troy @ South Alabama 63–64 regular
2025-01-16 2025 Troy @ UL Monroe 77–58 regular
2025-01-11 2025 Arkansas State @ Troy 84–78 regular
2025-01-10 2025 Texas State @ Troy 74–73 regular
2025-01-04 2025 Troy @ Marshall 58–57 regular
2025-01-02 2025 Troy @ App State 69–61 regular
2024-12-21 2025 Georgia State @ Troy 57–77 regular
2024-12-18 2025 LaGrange @ Troy 60–105 non_d1
2024-12-14 2025 Middle Georgia State @ Troy 53–87 non_d1
2024-12-11 2025 Troy @ Houston 42–62 regular
2024-12-01 2025 Eastern Kentucky @ Troy 74–84 regular
2024-11-29 2025 Merrimack @ Troy 72–68 regular
2024-11-26 2025 UTSA @ Troy 72–86 regular
2024-11-20 2025 Troy @ West Georgia 84–65 regular
2024-11-17 2025 Troy @ Oregon 61–82 regular
2024-11-14 2025 Troy @ Arkansas 49–65 regular
2024-11-09 2025 Troy @ New Orleans 78–61 regular
2024-11-05 2025 Toledo @ Troy 74–84 regular