Illinois State Redbirds
mens
MVC
canonical name from espn_mbb
Ratings · 2026
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 1.12 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| DE | 1.02 | points per possession | 0.14 |
| ME | 0.10 | points per possession | 0.19 |
| PACE | 65.63 | possessions per game | 4.60 |
At season 2026's latest cutoff
(2026-04-07 00:50),
with 35 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2026.
Axis spans 55.05 to 76.32 over
131 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
18).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2026
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23 | 13 | 0.639 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| cbbd | Illinois State | auto |
Schedule & results
| Date | S | Matchup | Score | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Auburn N | 66–88 | nit |
| 2026-03-25 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Dayton | 61–55 | nit |
| 2026-03-22 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Wake Forest | 78–75 | nit |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026 | Kent State @ Illinois State | 58–79 | nit |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 | Northern Iowa @ Illinois State N | 74–52 | conf_tournament |
| 2026-03-01 | 2026 | Belmont @ Illinois State | 74–81 | regular |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Northern Iowa | 71–69 | regular |
| 2026-02-22 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Bradley | 60–74 | regular |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026 | Murray State @ Illinois State | 61–78 | regular |
| 2026-02-15 | 2026 | Illinois State @ UIC | 56–83 | regular |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026 | Valparaiso @ Illinois State | 64–86 | regular |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Evansville | 80–88 | regular |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026 | Drake @ Illinois State | 76–86 | regular |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026 | Southern Illinois @ Illinois State | 54–50 | regular |
| 2026-01-29 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Murray State | 70–65 | regular |
| 2026-01-24 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Belmont | 69–80 | regular |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026 | Northern Iowa @ Illinois State | 54–59 | regular |
| 2026-01-17 | 2026 | Bradley @ Illinois State | 62–88 | regular |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Indiana State | 89–94 | regular |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026 | UIC @ Illinois State | 63–59 | regular |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Valparaiso | 71–77 | regular |
| 2026-01-01 | 2026 | Evansville @ Illinois State | 47–73 | regular |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Drake | 73–56 | regular |
| 2025-12-21 | 2026 | Indiana State @ Illinois State | 65–85 | regular |
| 2025-12-19 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Southern Illinois | 75–68 | regular |
| 2025-12-13 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Utah State N | 78–83 | regular |
| 2025-12-07 | 2026 | Chicago State @ Illinois State | 53–95 | regular |
| 2025-12-04 | 2026 | Eastern Kentucky @ Illinois State | 78–89 | regular |
| 2025-11-28 | 2026 | Furman @ Illinois State N | 65–72 | regular |
| 2025-11-27 | 2026 | Charlotte @ Illinois State N | 69–79 | regular |
| 2025-11-23 | 2026 | Coastal Carolina @ Illinois State | 42–94 | regular |
| 2025-11-21 | 2026 | Rockford @ Illinois State | 48–93 | non_d1 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Long Beach State | 82–80 | regular |
| 2025-11-15 | 2026 | Illinois State @ USC N | 67–87 | regular |
| 2025-11-09 | 2026 | Cornell @ Illinois State | 65–76 | regular |
| 2025-11-07 | 2026 | Illinois State @ Ohio | 68–72 | regular |