cbb·system

UCF Knights

mens American canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.10 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.94 points per possession 0.14
ME 0.17 points per possession 0.19
PACE 64.86 possessions per game 4.44

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-04 01:20), with 34 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

UCF AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans 0.71 to 1.37 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
20231915 0.559

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdUCF auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-19 2023 UCF @ Oregon 54–68 nit
2023-03-15 2023 UCF @ Florida 67–49 nit
2023-03-11 2023 UCF @ Memphis N 76–81 conf_tournament
2023-03-09 2023 SMU @ UCF N 70–76 conf_tournament
2023-03-05 2023 East Carolina @ UCF 58–84 regular
2023-03-03 2023 UCF @ Temple 55–57 regular
2023-02-26 2023 UCF @ Tulsa 68–49 regular
2023-02-23 2023 South Florida @ UCF 82–75 regular
2023-02-19 2023 Cincinnati @ UCF 73–71 regular
2023-02-17 2023 UCF @ Memphis 63–64 regular
2023-02-12 2023 Tulsa @ UCF 52–96 regular
2023-02-09 2023 UCF @ Wichita State 72–67 regular
2023-02-04 2023 UCF @ Cincinnati 64–73 regular
2023-01-28 2023 Temple @ UCF 77–70 regular
2023-01-26 2023 Houston @ UCF 82–71 regular
2023-01-21 2023 UCF @ South Florida 72–85 regular
2023-01-14 2023 UCF @ Tulane 69–77 regular
2023-01-12 2023 Memphis @ UCF 104–107 regular
2023-01-08 2023 SMU @ UCF 53–85 regular
2023-01-05 2023 UCF @ East Carolina 64–61 regular
2022-12-31 2023 UCF @ Houston 65–71 regular
2022-12-29 2023 Wichita State @ UCF 45–52 regular
2022-12-22 2023 Stetson @ UCF 58–73 regular
2022-12-17 2023 Missouri @ UCF N 68–66 regular
2022-12-15 2023 UCF @ Ole Miss 72–61 regular
2022-12-11 2023 Tarleton State @ UCF 49–75 regular
2022-12-04 2023 Samford @ UCF 77–80 regular
2022-11-27 2023 Miami @ UCF 66–64 regular
2022-11-24 2023 Evansville @ UCF 56–76 regular
2022-11-21 2023 Santa Clara @ UCF N 50–57 regular
2022-11-19 2023 UCF @ Oklahoma State N 60–56 regular
2022-11-15 2023 Western Illinois @ UCF 37–70 regular
2022-11-12 2023 Florida State @ UCF 54–68 regular
2022-11-08 2023 UNC Asheville @ UCF 98–95 regular