cbb·system

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2015

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.67 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.66 points per possession 0.15
ME 0.01 points per possession 0.19
PACE 74.10 possessions per game 4.31

At season 2015's latest cutoff (2015-03-10 01:00), with 27 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northern Arizona AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2015. Axis spans 0.38 to 0.99 over 80 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2015

SeasonWLPct
20151317 0.433

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthern Arizona auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2015-03-11 2015 Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington N 57–73 conf_tournament
2015-03-07 2015 Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State 81–105 regular
2015-03-06 2015 Northern Arizona @ Portland State 79–62 regular
2015-03-01 2015 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona 88–67 regular
2015-02-27 2015 North Dakota @ Northern Arizona 68–72 regular
2015-02-21 2015 Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington 42–73 regular
2015-02-20 2015 Northern Arizona @ Idaho 43–78 regular
2015-02-14 2015 Weber State @ Northern Arizona 52–56 regular
2015-02-13 2015 Idaho State @ Northern Arizona 47–64 regular
2015-02-07 2015 Northern Arizona @ North Dakota 62–78 regular
2015-02-06 2015 Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado 51–49 regular
2015-02-01 2015 Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona 64–73 regular
2015-01-25 2015 Montana State @ Northern Arizona 64–79 regular
2015-01-23 2015 Montana @ Northern Arizona 69–42 regular
2015-01-17 2015 Northern Arizona @ Idaho State 68–69 regular
2015-01-16 2015 Northern Arizona @ Weber State 53–66 regular
2015-01-11 2015 Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah 53–63 regular
2015-01-03 2015 Portland State @ Northern Arizona 46–94 regular
2015-01-01 2015 Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona 60–64 regular
2014-12-21 2015 Northern Arizona @ New Mexico 37–56 regular
2014-12-19 2015 Cal State Northridge @ Northern Arizona 77–71 regular
2014-12-16 2015 Pepperdine @ Northern Arizona 66–63 regular
2014-12-13 2015 Northern Arizona @ Oregon 47–59 regular
2014-12-04 2015 Loyola Marymount @ Northern Arizona 64–82 regular
2014-11-29 2015 Fort Lewis @ Northern Arizona 43–61 non_d1
2014-11-27 2015 Northern Arizona @ UT Arlington 62–80 regular
2014-11-23 2015 UC Santa Barbara @ Northern Arizona 49–67 regular
2014-11-20 2015 Northern Arizona @ UTEP 58–82 regular
2014-11-16 2015 Western New Mexico @ Northern Arizona 58–54 non_d1
2014-11-15 2015 UC Irvine @ Northern Arizona 35–66 regular