cbb·system

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2019

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.89 points per possession 0.14
DE 0.98 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.09 points per possession 0.19
PACE 70.92 possessions per game 4.73

At season 2019's latest cutoff (2019-04-07 22:00), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northern Arizona AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2019. Axis spans -0.23 to 1.79 over 130 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2019

SeasonWLPct
20191318 0.419

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthern Arizona auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2019-03-12 2019 Northern Arizona @ Idaho N 73–90 conf_tournament
2019-03-11 2019 Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona N 69–74 conf_tournament
2019-03-09 2019 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona 68–79 regular
2019-03-05 2019 Montana @ Northern Arizona 65–82 regular
2019-03-02 2019 Montana State @ Northern Arizona 72–76 regular
2019-02-23 2019 Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington 76–81 regular
2019-02-22 2019 Northern Arizona @ Idaho 72–90 regular
2019-02-16 2019 Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona 69–71 regular
2019-02-15 2019 Portland State @ Northern Arizona 74–59 regular
2019-02-09 2019 Northern Arizona @ Weber State 75–64 regular
2019-02-08 2019 Northern Arizona @ Idaho State 81–77 regular
2019-02-02 2019 Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona 64–62 regular
2019-02-01 2019 Idaho @ Northern Arizona 86–69 regular
2019-01-29 2019 Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah 78–69 regular
2019-01-26 2019 Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado 53–63 regular
2019-01-19 2019 Northern Arizona @ Portland State 55–72 regular
2019-01-17 2019 Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State 61–65 regular
2019-01-12 2019 Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona 82–76 regular
2019-01-05 2019 Idaho State @ Northern Arizona 80–69 regular
2019-01-04 2019 Weber State @ Northern Arizona 64–74 regular
2018-12-31 2019 Northern Arizona @ Montana State 70–80 regular
2018-12-29 2019 Northern Arizona @ Montana 62–78 regular
2018-12-22 2019 Northern Arizona @ Arizona 47–71 regular
2018-12-08 2019 New Mexico @ Northern Arizona 84–55 regular
2018-12-05 2019 Northern Arizona @ Colorado State 54–65 regular
2018-11-24 2019 Northern Arizona @ SMU N 48–55 regular
2018-11-23 2019 Northern Arizona @ Loyola Marymount 63–62 regular
2018-11-18 2019 California Baptist @ Northern Arizona 88–91 regular
2018-11-11 2019 Northern Arizona @ Washington 59–81 regular
2018-11-10 2019 Northern Arizona @ Seattle U 65–58 regular
2018-11-06 2019 Fresno State @ Northern Arizona 73–86 regular