cbb·system

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2020

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.96 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.95 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.01 points per possession 0.19
PACE 72.70 possessions per game 4.38

At season 2020's latest cutoff (2020-03-12 18:00), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northern Arizona AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2020. Axis spans 63.78 to 167.10 over 107 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2020

SeasonWLPct
20201615 0.516

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbNorthern Arizona auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2020-03-11 2020 Northern Arizona @ Montana State N 71–76 conf_tournament
2020-03-10 2020 Northern Arizona @ Montana N 68–65 conf_tournament
2020-03-05 2020 Portland State @ Northern Arizona 68–63 regular
2020-02-29 2020 Northern Arizona @ Montana State 71–73 regular
2020-02-28 2020 Northern Arizona @ Montana 57–70 regular
2020-02-22 2020 Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona 58–63 regular
2020-02-21 2020 Idaho @ Northern Arizona 67–70 regular
2020-02-15 2020 Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah 64–82 regular
2020-02-14 2020 Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado 71–60 regular
2020-02-08 2020 Weber State @ Northern Arizona 61–92 regular
2020-02-07 2020 Idaho State @ Northern Arizona 79–76 regular
2020-02-04 2020 Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington 70–62 regular
2020-02-01 2020 Northern Arizona @ Idaho 71–70 regular
2020-01-28 2020 Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State 85–65 regular
2020-01-25 2020 Northern Arizona @ Portland State 54–66 regular
2020-01-18 2020 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona 45–72 regular
2020-01-17 2020 Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona 76–84 regular
2020-01-11 2020 Northern Arizona @ Idaho State 70–59 regular
2020-01-10 2020 Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona 107–114 regular
2020-01-04 2020 Northern Arizona @ Weber State 88–82 regular
2019-12-31 2020 Montana State @ Northern Arizona 72–64 regular
2019-12-28 2020 Montana @ Northern Arizona 79–71 regular
2019-12-20 2020 San José State @ Northern Arizona N 64–67 regular
2019-12-19 2020 Northern Arizona @ Oregon State N 57–91 regular
2019-12-08 2020 UC Davis @ Northern Arizona 71–61 regular
2019-12-01 2020 Northern Arizona @ Houston Christian 79–62 regular
2019-11-30 2020 Northern Arizona @ Rice 57–71 regular
2019-11-24 2020 Northern Arizona @ Fresno State 66–83 regular
2019-11-21 2020 Northern Arizona @ California Baptist 79–98 regular
2019-11-16 2020 Seattle U @ Northern Arizona 80–88 regular
2019-11-09 2020 Northern Arizona @ New Mexico 76–83 regular