cbb·system

Mississippi State Bulldogs

mens SEC canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2021

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.08 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.95 points per possession 0.14
ME 0.12 points per possession 0.19
PACE 66.19 possessions per game 4.72

At season 2021's latest cutoff (2021-04-06 01:20), with 34 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Mississippi State AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2021. Axis spans -0.27 to 0.58 over 111 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2021

SeasonWLPct
20211815 0.545

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdMississippi State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2021-03-28 2021 Mississippi State @ Memphis N 64–77 nit
2021-03-27 2021 Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State N 62–84 nit
2021-03-25 2021 Mississippi State @ Richmond N 68–67 nit
2021-03-20 2021 Mississippi State @ Saint Louis N 74–68 nit
2021-03-12 2021 Mississippi State @ Alabama N 48–85 conf_tournament
2021-03-11 2021 Mississippi State @ Kentucky N 74–73 conf_tournament
2021-03-06 2021 Mississippi State @ Auburn 71–78 regular
2021-03-04 2021 Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 63–57 regular
2021-02-27 2021 Alabama @ Mississippi State 64–59 regular
2021-02-25 2021 South Carolina @ Mississippi State 48–69 regular
2021-02-20 2021 Mississippi State @ Ole Miss 66–56 regular
2021-02-18 2021 Mississippi State @ Auburn scheduled regular
2021-02-13 2021 Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State 72–51 regular
2021-02-11 2021 LSU @ Mississippi State 94–80 regular
2021-02-06 2021 Mississippi State @ South Carolina 75–59 regular
2021-02-03 2021 Mississippi State @ Arkansas 45–61 regular
2021-01-30 2021 Iowa State @ Mississippi State 56–95 regular
2021-01-27 2021 Mississippi State @ Tennessee 53–56 regular
2021-01-23 2021 Mississippi State @ Alabama 73–81 regular
2021-01-20 2021 Ole Miss @ Mississippi State 64–46 regular
2021-01-16 2021 Florida @ Mississippi State 69–72 regular
2021-01-14 2021 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State 56–55 regular
2021-01-09 2021 Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt 84–81 regular
2021-01-06 2021 Missouri @ Mississippi State 63–78 regular
2021-01-02 2021 Kentucky @ Mississippi State 78–73 regular
2020-12-31 2021 Mississippi State @ Georgia 83–73 regular
2020-12-22 2021 Mississippi Valley State @ Mississippi State 48–87 regular
2020-12-17 2021 Central Arkansas @ Mississippi State 65–81 regular
2020-12-12 2021 Mississippi State @ Dayton N 82–85 regular
2020-12-09 2021 Jackson State @ Mississippi State 59–82 regular
2020-12-05 2021 North Texas @ Mississippi State 63–69 regular
2020-12-01 2021 Texas State @ Mississippi State 51–68 regular
2020-11-26 2021 Liberty @ Mississippi State N 84–73 regular
2020-11-26 2021 Mississippi State @ Clemson N 42–53 regular