cbb·system

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

mens Big Sky canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2021

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.00 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.14 points per possession 0.12
ME -0.14 points per possession 0.18
PACE 64.20 possessions per game 4.82

At season 2021's latest cutoff (2021-04-04 00:47), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Northern Arizona AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2021. Axis spans 0.56 to 1.27 over 110 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2021

SeasonWLPct
2021616 0.273

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdNorthern Arizona auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2021-03-12 2021 Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington N 60–66 conf_tournament
2021-03-10 2021 Northern Arizona @ Portland State N 77–66 conf_tournament
2021-02-27 2021 Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona 92–62 regular
2021-02-25 2021 Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah 80–85 regular
2021-02-20 2021 Northern Arizona @ Weber State 52–74 regular
2021-02-19 2021 Northern Arizona @ Weber State 59–92 regular
2021-02-13 2021 Portland State @ Northern Arizona canceled regular
2021-02-12 2021 Portland State @ Northern Arizona canceled regular
2021-02-05 2021 Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State canceled regular
2021-01-31 2021 Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado canceled regular
2021-01-30 2021 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona 64–68 regular
2021-01-29 2021 Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona scheduled regular
2021-01-23 2021 Montana State @ Northern Arizona 58–53 regular
2021-01-22 2021 Montana State @ Northern Arizona 62–51 regular
2021-01-16 2021 Northern Arizona @ Montana 62–58 regular
2021-01-15 2021 Northern Arizona @ Montana 56–67 regular
2021-01-09 2021 Idaho State @ Northern Arizona 76–70 regular
2021-01-08 2021 Idaho State @ Northern Arizona 73–69 regular
2021-01-02 2021 Northern Arizona @ Idaho 83–78 regular
2021-01-01 2021 Northern Arizona @ Idaho 78–65 regular
2020-12-29 2021 Northern Arizona @ Gonzaga 58–88 regular
2020-12-22 2021 Northern Arizona @ Denver 68–65 regular
2020-12-21 2021 Northern Arizona @ Texas State N 65–70 regular
2020-12-19 2021 Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona 80–64 regular
2020-12-19 2021 Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona canceled regular
2020-12-15 2021 Northern Arizona @ Colorado State 52–91 regular
2020-12-13 2021 Northern Arizona @ Gonzaga canceled regular
2020-12-11 2021 UC Riverside @ Northern Arizona 74–50 regular
2020-12-08 2021 Northern Arizona @ Arizona 53–96 regular
2020-11-26 2021 Northern Arizona @ Arizona canceled regular