cbb·system

Arkansas State Red Wolves

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2015

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.94 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.85 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.09 points per possession 0.17
PACE 70.86 possessions per game 4.44

At season 2015's latest cutoff (2015-03-10 01:00), with 29 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Arkansas State AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2015. Axis spans 0.67 to 1.28 over 91 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2015

SeasonWLPct
20152411 0.686

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbArkansas State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2015-03-22 2015 Arkansas State @ Middle Tennessee 60–70 other_postseason
2015-03-19 2015 Western Michigan @ Arkansas State 49–61 other_postseason
2015-03-15 2015 Arkansas State @ Little Rock N 72–78 conf_tournament
2015-03-13 2015 Louisiana @ Arkansas State N 61–63 conf_tournament
2015-03-11 2015 App State @ Arkansas State N 52–67 conf_tournament
2015-03-07 2015 Louisiana @ Arkansas State 65–87 regular
2015-03-05 2015 South Alabama @ Arkansas State 60–70 regular
2015-02-28 2015 Arkansas State @ Texas State 74–83 regular
2015-02-26 2015 UT Arlington @ Arkansas State 62–67 regular
2015-02-21 2015 UL Monroe @ Arkansas State 61–69 regular
2015-02-19 2015 Arkansas State @ Little Rock 61–63 regular
2015-02-12 2015 Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern 81–73 regular
2015-02-05 2015 Troy @ Arkansas State 72–91 regular
2015-01-31 2015 Arkansas State @ Georgia State 61–47 regular
2015-01-29 2015 Little Rock @ Arkansas State 69–70 regular
2015-01-24 2015 Arkansas State @ Troy 82–76 regular
2015-01-22 2015 Arkansas State @ Louisiana 57–69 regular
2015-01-19 2015 Georgia State @ Arkansas State 65–76 regular
2015-01-17 2015 Texas State @ Arkansas State 48–68 regular
2015-01-15 2015 Arkansas State @ App State 69–70 regular
2015-01-10 2015 Arkansas State @ UT Arlington 80–77 regular
2015-01-08 2015 Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State 63–86 regular
2015-01-05 2015 Arkansas State @ UL Monroe 77–57 regular
2015-01-03 2015 App State @ Arkansas State 75–89 regular
2014-12-30 2015 Arkansas State @ South Alabama 62–50 regular
2014-12-23 2015 Florida Gulf Coast @ Arkansas State 74–68 regular
2014-12-20 2015 Arkansas State @ Missouri State 78–62 regular
2014-12-18 2015 Arkansas State @ Kent State 59–44 regular
2014-12-14 2015 Arkansas State @ Kansas 48–62 regular
2014-12-12 2015 Arkansas State @ Ohio State 52–67 regular
2014-12-02 2015 Chattanooga @ Arkansas State 52–57 regular
2014-11-29 2015 Christian Brothers @ Arkansas State 39–79 non_d1
2014-11-23 2015 Arkansas State @ Colorado 69–80 regular
2014-11-17 2015 Arkansas State @ Mississippi State 83–93 regular
2014-11-15 2015 Jackson State @ Arkansas State 60–92 regular