cbb·system

Arkansas State Red Wolves

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2019

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.88 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.99 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.10 points per possession 0.19
PACE 70.61 possessions per game 4.76

At season 2019's latest cutoff (2019-04-07 22:00), with 30 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Arkansas State AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjOE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2019. Axis spans -0.19 to 1.78 over 130 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2019

SeasonWLPct
20191218 0.400

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbArkansas State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2019-03-11 2019 Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina 49–63 conf_tournament
2019-03-09 2019 Arkansas State @ Louisiana 75–73 regular
2019-03-08 2019 Arkansas State @ UL Monroe 53–65 regular
2019-03-02 2019 Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State 75–86 regular
2019-03-01 2019 Georgia State @ Arkansas State 64–62 regular
2019-02-23 2019 Little Rock @ Arkansas State 58–62 regular
2019-02-16 2019 Arkansas State @ UT Arlington 62–67 regular
2019-02-15 2019 Arkansas State @ Texas State 54–68 regular
2019-02-09 2019 Troy @ Arkansas State 100–89 regular
2019-02-08 2019 South Alabama @ Arkansas State 58–69 regular
2019-02-02 2019 Arkansas State @ Little Rock 55–68 regular
2019-01-26 2019 Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina 72–88 regular
2019-01-24 2019 Arkansas State @ App State 67–75 regular
2019-01-19 2019 Texas State @ Arkansas State 85–62 regular
2019-01-18 2019 UT Arlington @ Arkansas State 100–73 regular
2019-01-12 2019 Arkansas State @ Troy 79–87 regular
2019-01-11 2019 Arkansas State @ South Alabama 77–64 regular
2019-01-05 2019 UL Monroe @ Arkansas State 54–64 regular
2019-01-04 2019 Louisiana @ Arkansas State 75–87 regular
2018-12-30 2019 Arkansas State @ Missouri 50–70 regular
2018-12-21 2019 Arkansas State @ Belmont 55–74 regular
2018-12-13 2019 Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State 57–60 regular
2018-12-09 2019 Tulsa @ Arkansas State 60–73 regular
2018-12-01 2019 Arkansas State @ UTEP 67–66 regular
2018-11-28 2019 Murray State @ Arkansas State 63–74 regular
2018-11-23 2019 Arkansas State @ Texas A&M 56–97 regular
2018-11-21 2019 Louisiana Tech @ Arkansas State 80–70 regular
2018-11-17 2019 Arkansas State @ UT Martin 91–97 regular
2018-11-12 2019 Memphis @ Arkansas State 66–77 regular
2018-11-09 2019 Arkansas State @ Oklahoma State 60–62 regular