cbb·system

Arkansas State Red Wolves

womens canonical name from espn_wbb

Ratings · 2020

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.89 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.03 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.14 points per possession 0.19
PACE 70.59 possessions per game 4.48

At season 2020's latest cutoff (2020-03-12 18:00), with 29 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Arkansas State AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2020. Axis spans 59.70 to 162.45 over 107 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2020

SeasonWLPct
20201119 0.367

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbArkansas State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2020-03-11 2020 Arkansas State @ South Alabama N 71–82 conf_tournament
2020-03-07 2020 Troy @ Arkansas State 91–81 regular
2020-03-06 2020 South Alabama @ Arkansas State 80–86 regular
2020-02-29 2020 Little Rock @ Arkansas State 54–72 regular
2020-02-22 2020 Arkansas State @ Troy 64–79 regular
2020-02-20 2020 Arkansas State @ South Alabama 71–87 regular
2020-02-15 2020 Texas State @ Arkansas State 83–69 regular
2020-02-14 2020 UT Arlington @ Arkansas State 89–62 regular
2020-02-08 2020 Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern 67–80 regular
2020-02-06 2020 Arkansas State @ Georgia State 56–67 regular
2020-02-01 2020 Arkansas State @ UL Monroe 54–53 regular
2020-01-25 2020 Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State 61–63 regular
2020-01-24 2020 Arkansas State @ Louisiana 43–83 regular
2020-01-18 2020 Arkansas State @ Little Rock 58–67 regular
2020-01-17 2020 App State @ Arkansas State 58–76 regular
2020-01-11 2020 Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State 62–69 regular
2020-01-10 2020 Georgia State @ Arkansas State 68–70 regular
2020-01-04 2020 Arkansas State @ Texas State 56–53 regular
2020-01-03 2020 Arkansas State @ UT Arlington 44–71 regular
2019-12-29 2020 Arkansas State @ Louisiana Tech 54–67 regular
2019-12-18 2020 Arkansas State @ Baylor 43–111 regular
2019-12-14 2020 Arkansas State @ Memphis 50–78 regular
2019-12-10 2020 Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Arkansas State 60–81 regular
2019-11-30 2020 Arkansas State @ San Diego State 71–62 regular
2019-11-27 2020 Arkansas State @ Murray State 62–77 regular
2019-11-23 2020 North Carolina A&T @ Arkansas State N 55–50 regular
2019-11-22 2020 Arkansas State @ DePaul 64–109 regular
2019-11-14 2020 Southeast Missouri State @ Arkansas State 79–67 regular
2019-11-09 2020 Arkansas State @ Tulsa 77–79 regular
2019-11-06 2020 Central Baptist @ Arkansas State 63–88 non_d1