North Carolina Tar Heels
womens
canonical name from espn_wbb
Round of 64 (out) 2021
Ratings · 2021
| Dimension | Value | Unit | σ |
|---|---|---|---|
| OE | 1.12 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| DE | 0.83 | points per possession | 0.13 |
| ME | 0.28 | points per possession | 0.18 |
| PACE | 71.09 | possessions per game | 4.82 |
At season 2021's latest cutoff
(2021-04-04 22:00),
with 30 games played. OE is points scored
per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their
difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is
possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares
its row's unit.
Ratings over time
Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014
Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace
Warm-up shown · hide
train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2021.
Axis spans -0.16 to 0.79 over
102 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ
(AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been
played.
The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had
played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating
is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at
25).
This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal
average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each
factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit
noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.Record · 2021
| Season | W | L | Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 13 | 11 | 0.542 |
Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.
Vendor names
| Source | Name | Reviewed |
|---|---|---|
| espn_wbb | North Carolina | auto |
Schedule & results
| Date | S | Matchup | Score | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-22 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Alabama N | 71–80 | ncaa_tournament |
| 2021-03-04 | 2021 | Wake Forest @ North Carolina N | 82–71 | conf_tournament |
| 2021-02-28 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Virginia Tech | 68–63 | regular |
| 2021-02-25 | 2021 | Georgia Tech @ North Carolina | 59–84 | regular |
| 2021-02-21 | 2021 | North Carolina @ NC State | 63–82 | regular |
| 2021-02-19 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Clemson | 77–64 | regular |
| 2021-02-14 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | 81–72 | regular |
| 2021-02-11 | 2021 | Boston College @ North Carolina | canceled | regular |
| 2021-02-07 | 2021 | NC State @ North Carolina | 69–76 | regular |
| 2021-02-04 | 2021 | Florida State @ North Carolina | 61–51 | regular |
| 2021-01-31 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Virginia Tech | 69–73 | regular |
| 2021-01-29 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Louisville | 68–79 | regular |
| 2021-01-24 | 2021 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 73–78 | regular |
| 2021-01-21 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Virginia | canceled | regular |
| 2021-01-19 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Syracuse | 76–88 | regular |
| 2021-01-17 | 2021 | Duke @ North Carolina | canceled | regular |
| 2021-01-14 | 2021 | Virginia Tech @ North Carolina | 66–54 | regular |
| 2021-01-10 | 2021 | Miami @ North Carolina | 69–59 | regular |
| 2021-01-03 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Pittsburgh | postponed | regular |
| 2020-12-31 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Syracuse | postponed | regular |
| 2020-12-20 | 2021 | Wake Forest @ North Carolina | 74–77 | regular |
| 2020-12-18 | 2021 | Syracuse @ North Carolina | 68–92 | regular |
| 2020-12-14 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Miami | 63–67 | regular |
| 2020-12-13 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Louisville | postponed | regular |
| 2020-12-10 | 2021 | North Carolina @ Wake Forest | 54–57 | regular |
| 2020-12-06 | 2021 | Charlotte @ North Carolina | 75–81 | regular |
| 2020-12-03 | 2021 | South Carolina State @ North Carolina | 28–98 | regular |
| 2020-11-29 | 2021 | High Point @ North Carolina | 70–95 | regular |
| 2020-11-28 | 2021 | UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina | 35–96 | regular |
| 2020-11-25 | 2021 | Radford @ North Carolina | 61–90 | regular |