cbb·system

Merrimack Warriors

mens NEC canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.91 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.01 points per possession 0.14
ME -0.10 points per possession 0.20
PACE 65.55 possessions per game 4.45

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-04 01:20), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Merrimack AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans -0.60 to 0.29 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
20231816 0.529

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdMerrimack auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-08 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack 66–67 conf_tournament
2023-03-04 2023 Sacred Heart @ Merrimack 60–71 conf_tournament
2023-03-02 2023 Long Island University @ Merrimack 76–91 conf_tournament
2023-02-25 2023 Merrimack @ Long Island University 80–59 regular
2023-02-24 2023 Central Connecticut @ Merrimack 54–70 regular
2023-02-18 2023 Merrimack @ Sacred Heart 67–55 regular
2023-02-17 2023 Merrimack @ Hartford 67–59 regular
2023-02-11 2023 Merrimack @ St. Francis (PA) 75–68 regular
2023-02-10 2023 Stonehill @ Merrimack 43–56 regular
2023-02-04 2023 St. Francis (PA) @ Merrimack 66–70 regular
2023-02-02 2023 Long Island University @ Merrimack 59–76 regular
2023-01-28 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack 78–71 regular
2023-01-27 2023 Merrimack @ Central Connecticut 64–61 regular
2023-01-22 2023 Merrimack @ St. Francis Brooklyn 63–55 regular
2023-01-17 2023 Wagner @ Merrimack 62–57 regular
2023-01-14 2023 Merrimack @ Stonehill 59–47 regular
2023-01-07 2023 St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack 53–65 regular
2023-01-06 2023 Sacred Heart @ Merrimack 59–55 regular
2022-12-31 2023 Merrimack @ Wagner 58–48 regular
2022-12-30 2023 Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson 63–71 regular
2022-12-18 2023 Merrimack @ Bucknell 55–61 regular
2022-12-11 2023 Maine @ Merrimack 50–47 regular
2022-12-10 2023 University of New England @ Merrimack 23–82 non_d1
2022-12-08 2023 Merrimack @ San Francisco 51–69 regular
2022-12-04 2023 Vermont @ Merrimack 66–43 regular
2022-12-03 2023 Boston University @ Merrimack 68–54 regular
2022-11-30 2023 Merrimack @ UMass Lowell 51–77 regular
2022-11-26 2023 Merrimack @ Bradley 41–83 regular
2022-11-24 2023 Merrimack @ Providence 57–71 regular
2022-11-20 2023 St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Merrimack N 72–61 regular
2022-11-19 2023 Merrimack @ Montana 51–62 regular
2022-11-18 2023 Merrimack @ Troy N 54–73 regular
2022-11-11 2023 Clark (MA) @ Merrimack 48–64 non_d1
2022-11-07 2023 Merrimack @ St. John's 72–97 regular