cbb·system

Cal Poly Mustangs

mens Big West canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.93 points per possession 0.14
DE 1.03 points per possession 0.13
ME -0.10 points per possession 0.19
PACE 63.35 possessions per game 4.52

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-04 01:20), with 33 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Cal Poly AdjPace across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjPace (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans 53.67 to 73.59 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjPace_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
2023825 0.242

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdCal Poly auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-10 2023 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara N 54–64 conf_tournament
2023-03-08 2023 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State N 88–68 conf_tournament
2023-03-05 2023 UC Riverside @ Cal Poly 73–72 regular
2023-03-03 2023 Cal Poly @ UC San Diego canceled regular
2023-02-25 2023 UC Davis @ Cal Poly 58–52 regular
2023-02-21 2023 UC Irvine @ Cal Poly 59–56 regular
2023-02-19 2023 Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 62–83 regular
2023-02-16 2023 Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly 70–62 regular
2023-02-11 2023 Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge 53–64 regular
2023-02-10 2023 Cal Poly @ UC Irvine 54–55 regular
2023-02-05 2023 Hawai'i @ Cal Poly 69–56 regular
2023-02-03 2023 Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara 62–68 regular
2023-01-29 2023 Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly 65–36 regular
2023-01-27 2023 Long Beach State @ Cal Poly 70–52 regular
2023-01-21 2023 Cal Poly @ UC Davis 63–65 regular
2023-01-20 2023 UC San Diego @ Cal Poly 71–64 regular
2023-01-17 2023 Cal Poly @ UC Riverside 78–83 regular
2023-01-13 2023 Cal Poly @ Long Beach State 58–77 regular
2023-01-07 2023 UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly 62–57 regular
2023-01-06 2023 Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield 51–61 regular
2023-01-01 2023 Cal Poly @ Hawai'i 48–57 regular
2022-12-30 2023 Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly 57–67 regular
2022-12-23 2023 San Diego Christian @ Cal Poly 59–72 non_d1
2022-12-21 2023 Cal Poly @ San José State 43–65 regular
2022-12-17 2023 Weber State @ Cal Poly 74–45 regular
2022-12-14 2023 Cal Poly @ Washington 68–74 regular
2022-12-11 2023 Portland State @ Cal Poly 49–72 regular
2022-12-04 2023 California Baptist @ Cal Poly 53–64 regular
2022-12-01 2023 Cal Poly @ Pepperdine canceled regular
2022-11-29 2023 Cal Poly @ Pacific 62–58 regular
2022-11-24 2023 Idaho @ Cal Poly 71–82 regular
2022-11-21 2023 Mount St. Mary's @ Cal Poly 73–68 regular
2022-11-19 2023 Cal Poly @ Stanford 43–80 regular
2022-11-11 2023 Cal Poly @ San Francisco 48–60 regular
2022-11-08 2023 Bethesda University @ Cal Poly 59–94 non_d1