cbb·system

Arizona State Sun Devils

mens Pac-12 canonical name from espn_mbb #10 Round of 64 (out) 2014

Ratings · 2014

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.14 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.96 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.17 points per possession 0.18
PACE 68.79 possessions per game 4.72

At season 2014's latest cutoff (2014-04-08 01:10), with 33 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Series smoothed · raw fit

Warm-up shown · hide

AdjDE (points allowed per possession)
Arizona State AdjDE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibratedD-I average 1.06 (Apr 08)Dec 11, 2013 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.23 (2σ) 10 games playedDec 17, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 18, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.23 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 19, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.23 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 20, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.23 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 21, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.23 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 22, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 23, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 24, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 26, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 28, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.23 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 29, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 13 games playedDec 30, 2013 AdjDE 0.99 ± 0.24 (2σ) 13 games playedDec 31, 2013 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 01, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 03, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 04, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 05, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 06, 2014 AdjDE 0.98 ± 0.24 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 07, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.24 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 08, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.25 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 09, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.24 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 10, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 11, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.24 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 12, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 13, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 14, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.24 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 15, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 16, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 17, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 18, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.24 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 19, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 20, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 21, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.24 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 22, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.24 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 23, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 24, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.24 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 25, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 26, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 27, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 28, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 29, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 30, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 31, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 21 games playedFeb 01, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.26 (2σ) 21 games playedFeb 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 04, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 05, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 06, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 07, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 08, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 09, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 10, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 11, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 12, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 13, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 14, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 15, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 16, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 17, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 18, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 19, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 20, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 21, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 22, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.26 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 23, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.25 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 24, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.25 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 26, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.25 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 27, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 28, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedMar 01, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.26 (2σ) 28 games playedMar 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.26 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 03, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.25 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 05, 2014 AdjDE 0.93 ± 0.25 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 06, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.26 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 07, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 08, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 09, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 10, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 11, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 12, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 13, 2014 AdjDE 0.94 ± 0.26 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 14, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 15, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 16, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.26 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 16, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 17, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 19, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 20, 2014 AdjDE 0.95 ± 0.25 (2σ) 32 games playedMar 21, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.26 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 22, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.26 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 23, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 24, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 25, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 26, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 27, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.26 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 28, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.26 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 29, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.26 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 30, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 30, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 01, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 02, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 03, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 06, 2014 AdjDE 0.97 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedApr 08, 2014 AdjDE 0.96 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games played
Walk-forward cutoff, season 2014
  • AdjDE (smoothed)
  • ±2σ, the model's own uncertainty
  • warm-up gate (18 games)
  • D-I average at the season's latest cutoff
AdjDE at each of 108 walk-forward cutoffs (train_cutoff_at) in season 2014. Hover or tap for the value, its ±2σ and games played at that cutoff. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjDE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2014

SeasonWLPct
20142112 0.636

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdArizona State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2014-03-21 2014 Arizona State @ Texas N 85–87 ncaa_tournament
2014-03-14 2014 Stanford @ Arizona State N 79–58 conf_tournament
2014-03-08 2014 Arizona State @ Oregon State 76–78 regular
2014-03-05 2014 Arizona State @ Oregon 78–85 regular
2014-03-01 2014 California @ Arizona State 60–78 regular
2014-02-27 2014 Stanford @ Arizona State 64–76 regular
2014-02-24 2014 Arizona State @ Utah 63–86 regular
2014-02-20 2014 Arizona State @ Colorado 52–61 regular
2014-02-15 2014 Arizona @ Arizona State 66–69 regular
2014-02-08 2014 Oregon @ Arizona State 72–74 regular
2014-02-07 2014 Oregon State @ Arizona State 82–86 regular
2014-02-01 2014 Arizona State @ Stanford 70–76 regular
2014-01-30 2014 Arizona State @ California 89–78 regular
2014-01-26 2014 Colorado @ Arizona State 51–72 regular
2014-01-24 2014 Utah @ Arizona State 75–79 regular
2014-01-17 2014 Arizona State @ Arizona 68–91 regular
2014-01-13 2014 Arizona State @ UCLA 72–87 regular
2014-01-10 2014 Arizona State @ USC 79–60 regular
2014-01-05 2014 Washington State @ Arizona State 47–66 regular
2014-01-03 2014 Washington @ Arizona State 76–65 regular
2013-12-28 2014 UC Irvine @ Arizona State 61–74 regular
2013-12-21 2014 Texas Tech @ Arizona State 62–76 regular
2013-12-14 2014 Grambling @ Arizona State 55–97 regular
2013-12-07 2014 Arizona State @ DePaul 78–56 regular
2013-12-01 2014 Miami @ Arizona State N 60–57 regular
2013-11-30 2014 Charleston @ Arizona State N 58–80 regular
2013-11-29 2014 Creighton @ Arizona State N 88–60 regular
2013-11-26 2014 Marquette @ Arizona State 77–79 regular
2013-11-23 2014 Bradley @ Arizona State 58–70 regular
2013-11-20 2014 Arizona State @ UNLV 86–80 regular
2013-11-16 2014 Idaho State @ Arizona State 60–88 regular
2013-11-13 2014 Miami (OH) @ Arizona State 54–90 regular
2013-11-09 2014 UMBC @ Arizona State 61–96 regular