cbb·system

Arizona State Sun Devils

mens Pac-12 canonical name from espn_mbb #11 Round of 64 (out) 2019

Ratings · 2019

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.10 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.99 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.11 points per possession 0.18
PACE 71.44 possessions per game 4.43

At season 2019's latest cutoff (2019-04-07 00:49), with 35 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2017 · 2016 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Series smoothed · raw fit

Warm-up shown · hide

AdjOE (points per possession)
Arizona State AdjOE across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibratedD-I average 1.05 (Apr 07)Dec 11, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.22 (2σ) 9 games playedDec 13, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.22 (2σ) 9 games playedDec 15, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.21 (2σ) 9 games playedDec 16, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.22 (2σ) 10 games playedDec 17, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 10 games playedDec 18, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 19, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 20, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 21, 2018 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 22, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 11 games playedDec 23, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.21 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 24, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.21 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 26, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.22 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 28, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.21 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 29, 2018 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.22 (2σ) 12 games playedDec 30, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.23 (2σ) 13 games playedDec 31, 2018 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.23 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 01, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.22 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 02, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 03, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.22 (2σ) 13 games playedJan 04, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.23 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 05, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.22 (2σ) 14 games playedJan 06, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.23 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 07, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 08, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.23 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 09, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 15 games playedJan 10, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 11, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.23 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 12, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 16 games playedJan 13, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 14, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 15, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 16, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 17, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 17 games playedJan 18, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 19, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 18 games playedJan 20, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 21, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 22, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 23, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 24, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 25, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 19 games playedJan 26, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 20 games playedJan 27, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 28, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.23 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 29, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 30, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 21 games playedJan 31, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 21 games playedFeb 01, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 02, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 03, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 03, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 05, 2019 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 07, 2019 AdjOE 1.12 ± 0.24 (2σ) 22 games playedFeb 08, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 09, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 23 games playedFeb 10, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 11, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 12, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.24 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 13, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.25 (2σ) 24 games playedFeb 14, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 15, 2019 AdjOE 1.09 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 16, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 25 games playedFeb 17, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 18, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 20, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 26 games playedFeb 21, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 22, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.24 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 23, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 24, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 27 games playedFeb 25, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 26, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 27, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.24 (2σ) 28 games playedFeb 28, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedMar 01, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 28 games playedMar 02, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 03, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 04, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 29 games playedMar 05, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 06, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 07, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 08, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 09, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 30 games playedMar 10, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 11, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 12, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 13, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 31 games playedMar 16, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 17, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 17, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 18, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 20, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 33 games playedMar 21, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 34 games playedMar 22, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 34 games playedMar 23, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 24, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 25, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 26, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.26 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 27, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 28, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 29, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 30, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 31, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedMar 31, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 01, 2019 AdjOE 1.11 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 03, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 04, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 04, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.25 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 05, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.26 (2σ) 35 games playedApr 07, 2019 AdjOE 1.10 ± 0.26 (2σ) 35 games played
Walk-forward cutoff, season 2019
  • AdjOE (smoothed)
  • ±2σ, the model's own uncertainty
  • warm-up gate (18 games)
  • D-I average at the season's latest cutoff
AdjOE at each of 110 walk-forward cutoffs (train_cutoff_at) in season 2019. Hover or tap for the value, its ±2σ and games played at that cutoff. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjOE_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2019

SeasonWLPct
20192311 0.676

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdArizona State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2019-03-22 2019 Arizona State @ Buffalo N 74–91 ncaa_tournament
2019-03-21 2019 St. John's @ Arizona State N 65–74 ncaa_tournament
2019-03-16 2019 Oregon @ Arizona State N 79–75 conf_tournament
2019-03-15 2019 UCLA @ Arizona State N 72–83 conf_tournament
2019-03-09 2019 Arizona State @ Arizona 72–64 regular
2019-03-04 2019 Arizona State @ Oregon State 74–71 regular
2019-03-01 2019 Arizona State @ Oregon 51–79 regular
2019-02-24 2019 California @ Arizona State 59–69 regular
2019-02-21 2019 Stanford @ Arizona State 62–80 regular
2019-02-17 2019 Arizona State @ Utah 98–87 regular
2019-02-14 2019 Arizona State @ Colorado 73–77 regular
2019-02-10 2019 Washington @ Arizona State 63–75 regular
2019-02-08 2019 Washington State @ Arizona State 91–70 regular
2019-02-01 2019 Arizona @ Arizona State 88–95 regular
2019-01-27 2019 Arizona State @ USC 67–69 regular
2019-01-25 2019 Arizona State @ UCLA 84–73 regular
2019-01-20 2019 Oregon @ Arizona State 64–78 regular
2019-01-18 2019 Oregon State @ Arizona State 67–70 regular
2019-01-12 2019 Arizona State @ Stanford 71–85 regular
2019-01-10 2019 Arizona State @ California 80–66 regular
2019-01-05 2019 Colorado @ Arizona State 61–83 regular
2019-01-04 2019 Utah @ Arizona State 96–86 regular
2018-12-29 2019 Princeton @ Arizona State 67–66 regular
2018-12-23 2019 Kansas @ Arizona State 76–80 regular
2018-12-18 2019 Arizona State @ Vanderbilt 65–81 regular
2018-12-15 2019 Arizona State @ Georgia 76–74 regular
2018-12-08 2019 Nevada @ Arizona State N 72–66 regular
2018-12-02 2019 Texas Southern @ Arizona State 71–83 regular
2018-11-29 2019 Omaha @ Arizona State 71–89 regular
2018-11-22 2019 Arizona State @ Utah State N 87–82 regular
2018-11-20 2019 Mississippi State @ Arizona State N 67–72 regular
2018-11-17 2019 Arizona State @ San Francisco scheduled regular
2018-11-13 2019 Long Beach State @ Arizona State 58–90 regular
2018-11-10 2019 McNeese @ Arizona State 52–80 regular
2018-11-07 2019 Cal State Fullerton @ Arizona State 94–102 regular