cbb·system

Illinois Fighting Illini

mens Big Ten canonical name from espn_mbb #9 Round of 64 (out) 2023

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.14 points per possession 0.13
DE 0.96 points per possession 0.14
ME 0.18 points per possession 0.19
PACE 69.35 possessions per game 4.26

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-04 01:20), with 34 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Illinois AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans -0.25 to 0.75 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
20232013 0.606

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdIllinois auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-16 2023 Illinois @ Arkansas N 63–73 ncaa_tournament
2023-03-09 2023 Penn State @ Illinois N 79–76 conf_tournament
2023-03-05 2023 Illinois @ Purdue 71–76 regular
2023-03-03 2023 Michigan @ Illinois 87–91 regular
2023-02-26 2023 Illinois @ Ohio State 60–72 regular
2023-02-24 2023 Northwestern @ Illinois 62–66 regular
2023-02-21 2023 Minnesota @ Illinois 69–78 regular
2023-02-18 2023 Illinois @ Indiana 68–71 regular
2023-02-15 2023 Illinois @ Penn State 81–93 regular
2023-02-11 2023 Rutgers @ Illinois 60–69 regular
2023-02-08 2023 Minnesota @ Illinois scheduled regular
2023-02-04 2023 Illinois @ Iowa 79–81 regular
2023-02-01 2023 Nebraska @ Illinois 56–72 regular
2023-01-28 2023 Illinois @ Wisconsin 61–51 regular
2023-01-25 2023 Ohio State @ Illinois 60–69 regular
2023-01-20 2023 Indiana @ Illinois 80–65 regular
2023-01-16 2023 Illinois @ Minnesota 78–60 regular
2023-01-14 2023 Michigan State @ Illinois 66–75 regular
2023-01-11 2023 Illinois @ Nebraska 76–50 regular
2023-01-07 2023 Wisconsin @ Illinois 69–79 regular
2023-01-05 2023 Illinois @ Northwestern 60–73 regular
2022-12-30 2023 Bethune-Cookman @ Illinois 52–85 regular
2022-12-23 2023 Illinois @ Missouri N 71–93 regular
2022-12-17 2023 Alabama A&M @ Illinois 47–68 regular
2022-12-10 2023 Penn State @ Illinois 74–59 regular
2022-12-07 2023 Illinois @ Texas N 85–78 regular
2022-12-03 2023 Illinois @ Maryland 66–71 regular
2022-11-30 2023 Syracuse @ Illinois 44–73 regular
2022-11-26 2023 Lindenwood @ Illinois 59–92 regular
2022-11-20 2023 Illinois @ Virginia N 61–70 regular
2022-11-19 2023 Illinois @ UCLA N 79–70 regular
2022-11-15 2023 Monmouth @ Illinois 65–103 regular
2022-11-12 2023 Kansas City @ Illinois 48–86 regular
2022-11-08 2023 Eastern Illinois @ Illinois 57–87 regular