cbb·system

Dayton Flyers

womens canonical name from espn_wbb Elite 8 (out) 2015

Ratings · 2015

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 0.98 points per possession 0.12
DE 0.85 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.14 points per possession 0.17
PACE 75.24 possessions per game 4.30

At season 2015's latest cutoff (2015-03-10 01:00), with 31 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019 · 2018 · 2015 · 2014

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Dayton AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2015. Axis spans -0.45 to 0.52 over 91 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 25). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.65 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2015

SeasonWLPct
2015287 0.800

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
espn_wbbDayton auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2015-03-30 2015 Dayton @ UConn N 70–91 ncaa_tournament
2015-03-28 2015 Dayton @ Louisville N 82–66 ncaa_tournament
2015-03-22 2015 Dayton @ Kentucky N 99–94 ncaa_tournament
2015-03-20 2015 Iowa State @ Dayton N 66–78 ncaa_tournament
2015-03-08 2015 Dayton @ George Washington N 62–75 conf_tournament
2015-03-07 2015 Duquesne @ Dayton N 60–74 conf_tournament
2015-03-06 2015 Saint Joseph's @ Dayton N 61–80 conf_tournament
2015-03-01 2015 Dayton @ Saint Louis 95–68 regular
2015-02-27 2015 Massachusetts @ Dayton 60–69 regular
2015-02-22 2015 La Salle @ Dayton 49–91 regular
2015-02-19 2015 Dayton @ Fordham 59–45 regular
2015-02-15 2015 Saint Joseph's @ Dayton 64–82 regular
2015-02-12 2015 Richmond @ Dayton 41–79 regular
2015-02-08 2015 Dayton @ George Washington 56–67 regular
2015-02-06 2015 Dayton @ George Mason 84–73 regular
2015-01-31 2015 Saint Louis @ Dayton 72–87 regular
2015-01-28 2015 Dayton @ Richmond 76–62 regular
2015-01-24 2015 Dayton @ VCU 75–56 regular
2015-01-22 2015 Rhode Island @ Dayton 33–77 regular
2015-01-18 2015 Dayton @ St. Bonaventure 86–70 regular
2015-01-11 2015 Duquesne @ Dayton 67–78 regular
2015-01-07 2015 Dayton @ Davidson 67–51 regular
2015-01-04 2015 George Washington @ Dayton 69–66 regular
2014-12-31 2015 Dayton @ Central Michigan 98–89 regular
2014-12-28 2015 Green Bay @ Dayton 66–72 regular
2014-12-21 2015 Dayton @ Vanderbilt 71–67 regular
2014-12-13 2015 Central Michigan @ Dayton 76–86 regular
2014-12-10 2015 Toledo @ Dayton 57–79 regular
2014-12-07 2015 Purdue @ Dayton 61–63 regular
2014-12-04 2015 Dayton @ Wright State 79–76 regular
2014-11-27 2015 Providence @ Dayton 56–72 regular
2014-11-23 2015 Dayton @ Iowa 83–90 regular
2014-11-21 2015 Dayton @ UT Martin N 78–47 regular
2014-11-16 2015 Dayton @ Gonzaga 65–75 regular
2014-11-15 2015 Dayton @ Washington State 60–76 regular