cbb·system

Texas State Bobcats

mens Sun Belt canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2023

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.07 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.06 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.01 points per possession 0.18
PACE 62.27 possessions per game 4.64

At season 2023's latest cutoff (2023-04-04 01:20), with 32 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

Texas State AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2023. Axis spans -0.44 to 0.40 over 129 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2023

SeasonWLPct
20231619 0.457

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdTexas State auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2023-03-06 2023 Texas State @ Louisiana N 58–64 conf_tournament
2023-03-04 2023 Texas State @ Marshall N 71–68 conf_tournament
2023-03-02 2023 Texas State @ Old Dominion N 65–36 conf_tournament
2023-03-01 2023 Georgia State @ Texas State N 76–81 regular
2023-02-25 2023 Southern Miss @ Texas State 79–69 regular
2023-02-23 2023 South Alabama @ Texas State 76–67 regular
2023-02-18 2023 Texas State @ Coastal Carolina 78–75 regular
2023-02-16 2023 Texas State @ App State 75–82 regular
2023-02-11 2023 Old Dominion @ Texas State 70–68 regular
2023-02-10 2023 Arkansas State @ Texas State 62–66 regular
2023-02-05 2023 Texas State @ Troy 64–68 regular
2023-02-03 2023 Texas State @ Louisiana 63–82 regular
2023-01-28 2023 Texas State @ Southern Miss 58–67 regular
2023-01-27 2023 Georgia Southern @ Texas State 67–70 regular
2023-01-21 2023 Louisiana @ Texas State 60–51 regular
2023-01-20 2023 Marshall @ Texas State 81–73 regular
2023-01-14 2023 Texas State @ UL Monroe 58–61 regular
2023-01-13 2023 Texas State @ Arkansas State 61–58 regular
2023-01-07 2023 Texas State @ South Alabama 64–58 regular
2023-01-06 2023 Texas State @ James Madison 63–62 regular
2022-12-31 2023 Troy @ Texas State 55–52 regular
2022-12-30 2023 UL Monroe @ Texas State 57–53 regular
2022-12-21 2023 Science & Arts (OK) @ Texas State 72–87 non_d1
2022-12-17 2023 Sam Houston @ Texas State 69–62 regular
2022-12-14 2023 Mary Hardin-Baylor @ Texas State 71–65 non_d1
2022-12-11 2023 UT Arlington @ Texas State N 65–71 regular
2022-12-04 2023 Rice @ Texas State 83–71 regular
2022-12-02 2023 Texas State @ Lamar 65–55 regular
2022-11-27 2023 Texas State @ Hawai'i N 65–72 regular
2022-11-26 2023 Texas State @ Southern Utah N 78–65 regular
2022-11-22 2023 Texas State @ California 59–55 regular
2022-11-18 2023 Texas State @ UTSA 56–61 regular
2022-11-12 2023 Texas State @ Rhode Island 70–66 regular
2022-11-11 2023 Mid-America Christian @ Texas State 53–71 non_d1
2022-11-08 2023 Texas State @ Washington State 61–83 regular