womens · season 2014

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2014-04-09 teams rated 341 cutoffs in the walk 84

AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 84 cutoffs from 2013-12-17 to 2014-04-09. Axis spans 0.60 to 1.02. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). The shortest drawn line covers 15 of the 84 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2014-01-25, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide

UConn
Notre Dame
Richmond
Baylor
Duke
20 more, drawn as grey context

Readout

Hover or tap a station to move this readout; it starts at the pre-tournament cutoff.

cutoff 2014-03-22 rated here 25 AdjDE pts / possession

1 UConn 0.636
2 Notre Dame 0.720
3 Richmond 0.731
4 Baylor 0.753
5 Duke 0.774
6 West Virginia 0.774
7 South Carolina 0.776
8 Texas 0.777
9 Texas A&M 0.779
10 Boise State 0.779
11 North Carolina 0.779
12 Bowling Green 0.779
13 Louisville 0.785
14 Tennessee 0.786
15 Stanford 0.791
16 Arkansas 0.796
17 Lafayette 0.796
18 Kentucky 0.797
19 Gonzaga 0.805
20 Fordham 0.806
21 Florida State 0.807
22 Maryland 0.808
23 Oklahoma State 0.808
24 Georgia 0.811
25 South Dakota State 0.812

The top 25 going into the tournament

#	Team	AdjDE	Cutoffs rated	Postseason
1	UConn Huskies	0.64	71	Champion
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.72	71	Title game (out)
3	Richmond Spiders	0.73	71	—
4	Baylor Bears	0.75	71	Elite 8 (out)
5	Duke Blue Devils	0.77	71	Round of 32 (out)
6	West Virginia Mountaineers	0.77	71	Round of 32 (out)
7	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.78	71	Sweet 16 (out)
8	Texas Longhorns	0.78	71	Round of 32 (out)
9	Texas A&M Aggies	0.78	71	Elite 8 (out)
10	Boise State Broncos	0.78	2	—
11	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.78	71	Elite 8 (out)
12	Bowling Green Falcons	0.78	71	—
13	Louisville Cardinals	0.78	71	Elite 8 (out)
14	Tennessee Lady Volunteers	0.79	71	Sweet 16 (out)
15	Stanford Cardinal	0.79	71	Final Four (out)
16	Arkansas Razorbacks	0.80	71	—
17	Lafayette Leopards	0.80	71	—
18	Kentucky Wildcats	0.80	71	Sweet 16 (out)
19	Gonzaga Bulldogs	0.81	71	Round of 64 (out)
20	Fordham Rams	0.81	71	Round of 64 (out)
21	Florida State Seminoles	0.81	71	Round of 32 (out)
22	Maryland Terrapins	0.81	71	Final Four (out)
23	Oklahoma State Cowgirls	0.81	71	Sweet 16 (out)
24	Georgia Lady Bulldogs	0.81	71	Round of 64 (out)
25	South Dakota State Jackrabbits	0.81	71	—

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2014-03-22) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.