cbb·system

womens · season 2022

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2022-04-04 teams rated 357 cutoffs in the walk 124
womens 2022: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Louisville 2. Oklahoma State 3. Missouri State 4. North Carolina 5. Tennessee1. Louisville 2. Oklahoma State 3. Missouri State 4. South Carolina 5. Tennessee1. Louisville 2. Missouri State 3. South Carolina 4. North Carolina 5. Tennessee1. North Carolina 2. South Carolina 3. Louisville 4. Tennessee 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. Louisville 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. Louisville 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. UCF 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. UCF 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. Georgia 5. UCF1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. UCF 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Missouri State 4. UCF 5. Tennessee1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Tennessee 4. Missouri State 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. Missouri State 5. Georgia1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Georgia Tech 4. Texas 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Missouri State 3. North Carolina 4. Louisville 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Missouri State 3. Louisville 4. North Carolina 5. Texas1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Missouri State 4. Tennessee 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. Tennessee 4. Georgia Tech 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. Tennessee 4. UCF 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. North Carolina 4. UCF 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. Tennessee 4. UCF 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. Tennessee 4. Missouri State 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Louisville 4. UCF 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Louisville 3. North Carolina 4. UCF 5. Tennessee1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Louisville 4. Tennessee 5. UCF1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Louisville 4. North Carolina 5. UCF1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. Louisville 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. Louisville 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Louisville 4. North Carolina 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. Georgia Tech 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Georgia Tech 4. Louisville 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. Georgia Tech 4. Louisville 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. Georgia Tech 3. Tennessee 4. North Carolina 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. Tennessee 3. North Carolina 4. Georgia Tech 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Georgia Tech 4. Tennessee 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Georgia Tech 4. Tennessee 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. Georgia Tech 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Tennessee1. South Carolina 2. Georgia Tech 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Missouri State1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Georgia Tech 4. NC State 5. Princeton1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. NC State 4. Georgia Tech 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Louisville 4. UCF 5. Tennessee1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. Georgia Tech 4. Texas 5. UCF1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Tennessee1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Texas 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Louisville 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. UConn 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Georgia Tech 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. UConn 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Louisville1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. Stanford 4. UConn 5. North Carolina1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. UConn 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. UConn 4. North Carolina 5. Stanford1. South Carolina 2. North Carolina 3. UCF 4. Stanford 5. UConn1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. Georgia Tech1. South Carolina 2. UCF 3. North Carolina 4. Stanford 5. UConn
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 124 cutoffs from 2021-11-22 to 2022-04-04. Axis spans 0.50 to 0.88. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first cutoff through 2022-01-30, fewer than half the field had played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding. Warm-up: shown · hide
  • South Carolina
  • UCF
  • North Carolina
  • Stanford
  • UConn
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.63 109 Champion
2 UCF Knights 0.68 109 Round of 32 (out)
3 North Carolina Tar Heels 0.69 109 Sweet 16 (out)
4 Stanford Cardinal 0.70 109 Final Four (out)
5 UConn Huskies 0.70 109 Title game (out)
6 Louisville Cardinals 0.71 109 Final Four (out)
7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.72 109 Round of 64 (out)
8 Texas Longhorns 0.72 109 Elite 8 (out)
9 NC State Wolfpack 0.72 109 Elite 8 (out)
10 Georgia Lady Bulldogs 0.73 109 Round of 32 (out)
11 Tennessee Lady Volunteers 0.73 109 Sweet 16 (out)
12 Ole Miss Rebels 0.74 109 Round of 64 (out)
13 Indiana Hoosiers 0.75 109 Sweet 16 (out)
14 Arizona Wildcats 0.75 109 Round of 32 (out)
15 Princeton Tigers 0.75 109 Round of 32 (out)
16 Missouri State Lady Bears 0.76 109 Round of 64 (out)
17 Colorado Buffaloes 0.76 109 Round of 64 (out)
18 LSU Tigers 0.76 109 Round of 32 (out)
19 Michigan Wolverines 0.76 109 Elite 8 (out)
20 Baylor Bears 0.76 109 Round of 32 (out)
21 Miami Hurricanes 0.76 109 Round of 32 (out)
22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.76 109 Sweet 16 (out)
23 Dayton Flyers 0.76 109 Round of 64 (out)
24 Oklahoma State Cowgirls 0.77 109 —
25 BYU Cougars 0.77 109 Round of 64 (out)

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2022-03-13) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.