The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by
AdjDE
— the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them —
each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these
lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it
entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
The NCAA championship game for womens 2020 has no result in the
store, so the Postseason column below shows the furthest
completed round and no team is marked a champion. A walk-forward's final cutoff is
the morning of the title game, so the season's last rating snapshot precedes the final by
design.
end statecutoff 2020-03-12teams rated354cutoffs in the walk81
AdjDE (pts per possession) across
train_cutoff_at — 81 cutoffs from
2019-12-15 to 2020-03-12.
Axis spans 0.63 to 0.90.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
Series: smoothed (causal EWMA).
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2020-01-26, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
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Ranked at the season's last cutoff — this season has no cutoff whose ratings saw no NCAA
tournament game, best (lowest) first.
A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a
team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.