cbb·system

womens · season 2019

The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.

end state cutoff 2019-04-07 teams rated 351 cutoffs in the walk 101
womens 2019: AdjDE for the top 25 teams across the season's walk-forward cutoffsstart of the NCAA tournament — left of this line is pre-tournament1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. Marquette1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. Arizona State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. West Virginia1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. Louisville1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Mississippi State 5. Stanford1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Louisville1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Stanford 4. Notre Dame 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. Notre Dame 3. UConn 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Notre Dame 4. Stanford 5. Mississippi State1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Stanford 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville1. Baylor 2. UConn 3. Stanford 4. Notre Dame 5. Louisville
AdjDE (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — 101 cutoffs from 2019-01-27 to 2019-04-07. Axis spans 0.65 to 0.84. Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone. Series: smoothed (causal EWMA). Warm-up: show · hidden
  • Baylor
  • UConn
  • Notre Dame
  • Stanford
  • Mississippi State
  • 20 more, drawn as grey context

The top 25 going into the tournament

#TeamAdjDE Cutoffs ratedPostseason
1 Baylor Bears 0.66 88 Champion
2 UConn Huskies 0.72 88 Final Four (out)
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.74 88 Title game (out)
4 Stanford Cardinal 0.74 88 Final Four (advanced)
5 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.75 88 Final Four (advanced)
6 Marquette Golden Eagles 0.76 88 Round of 32 (out)
7 Arizona State Sun Devils 0.76 88 Final Four (out)
8 Kentucky Wildcats 0.77 88 Round of 32 (out)
9 Iowa State Cyclones 0.77 88 Round of 32 (out)
10 West Virginia Mountaineers 0.77 88 —
11 Louisville Cardinals 0.77 88 Final Four (advanced)
12 Texas A&M Aggies 0.78 88 Final Four (out)
13 LSU Tigers 0.78 88 —
14 UCF Knights 0.78 88 Round of 64 (out)
15 Green Bay Phoenix 0.78 88 —
16 Butler Bulldogs 0.78 88 —
17 Clemson Tigers 0.79 88 Round of 32 (out)
18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0.79 88 Round of 64 (out)
19 Oregon State Beavers 0.79 88 Final Four (out)
20 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 0.80 88 —
21 NC State Wolfpack 0.80 88 Final Four (out)
22 Quinnipiac Bobcats 0.80 88 Round of 64 (out)
23 Northwestern Wildcats 0.80 88 —
24 Gonzaga Bulldogs 0.80 88 Round of 32 (out)
25 Arizona Wildcats 0.80 88 —

Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2019-03-22) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.