cbb·system

UCF Knights

mens American canonical name from espn_mbb

Ratings · 2025

DimensionValueUnitσ
OE 1.17 points per possession 0.13
DE 1.06 points per possession 0.13
ME 0.11 points per possession 0.18
PACE 72.00 possessions per game 4.14

At season 2025's latest cutoff (2025-04-08 00:50), with 37 games played. OE is points scored per possession, DE points allowed per possession, and the adjusted margin (ME) is their difference — so 0.47 reads as +0.47 pts per possession, not 0.47 points. PACE is possessions per game, a count, not a per-possession rate. The σ column shares its row's unit.

Ratings over time

Season 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021

Show AdjME · AdjOE · AdjDE · AdjPace

Warm-up shown · hide

UCF AdjME across walk-forward cutoffswarm-up gate: 18 games played — left of this line the rating is not yet calibrated
AdjME (pts per possession) across train_cutoff_at — a walk-forward replay for season 2025. Axis spans -0.29 to 0.64 over 135 cutoffs. The shaded band is the model's own ±2σ (AdjME_sigma) — it is widest early, when few games have been played. The dashed rule is the mean warm-up gate: left of it the team had played fewer than 18 games, where the rating has not yet settled (a rating is a mean, so it gates on the mean curve; the prediction-σ gate is later or equal at 18). This line is the smoothed rating: an exponentially-weighted causal average of this team's own history (alpha 0.75 on each factor), fitted once on five seasons and frozen — it removes cutoff-to-cutoff fit noise without pulling the team toward the league mean.

Record · 2025

SeasonWLPct
20251918 0.514

Countable games per NCAA policy — includes non-D1, which count for the record and not for the ratings.

Vendor names

SourceNameReviewed
cbbdUCF auto

Schedule & results

DateSMatchupScoreType
2025-04-06 2025 Nebraska @ UCF N 77–66 other_postseason
2025-04-05 2025 UCF @ Villanova N 104–98 other_postseason
2025-04-03 2025 UCF @ Cincinnati N 88–80 other_postseason
2025-04-01 2025 UCF @ Oregon State N 75–76 other_postseason
2025-03-13 2025 UCF @ Kansas N 94–98 conf_tournament
2025-03-12 2025 UCF @ Utah N 87–72 conf_tournament
2025-03-08 2025 UCF @ West Virginia 65–72 regular
2025-03-06 2025 Oklahoma State @ UCF 70–83 regular
2025-03-01 2025 UCF @ TCU 78–89 regular
2025-02-27 2025 Kansas State @ UCF 76–80 regular
2025-02-23 2025 Utah @ UCF 72–76 regular
2025-02-20 2025 UCF @ Oklahoma State 95–104 regular
2025-02-15 2025 UCF @ Colorado 63–76 regular
2025-02-12 2025 Iowa State @ UCF 77–65 regular
2025-02-08 2025 UCF @ Baylor 76–91 regular
2025-02-06 2025 Cincinnati @ UCF 93–83 regular
2025-02-01 2025 BYU @ UCF 81–75 regular
2025-01-29 2025 UCF @ Kansas 87–91 regular
2025-01-25 2025 TCU @ UCF 58–85 regular
2025-01-22 2025 UCF @ Iowa State 83–108 regular
2025-01-18 2025 Houston @ UCF 69–68 regular
2025-01-15 2025 UCF @ Arizona State 95–89 regular
2025-01-12 2025 UCF @ Arizona 80–88 regular
2025-01-09 2025 Colorado @ UCF 74–75 regular
2025-01-05 2025 Kansas @ UCF 99–48 regular
2024-12-31 2025 UCF @ Texas Tech 87–83 regular
2024-12-21 2025 Jacksonville @ UCF 66–86 regular
2024-12-14 2025 Tulsa @ UCF N 75–88 regular
2024-12-08 2025 Tarleton State @ UCF 51–66 regular
2024-12-01 2025 California Baptist @ UCF 59–74 regular
2024-11-28 2025 Milwaukee @ UCF 76–84 regular
2024-11-24 2025 LSU @ UCF N 109–102 regular
2024-11-22 2025 UCF @ Wisconsin N 70–86 regular
2024-11-20 2025 Tennessee Tech @ UCF 69–80 regular
2024-11-13 2025 Florida Atlantic @ UCF 94–100 regular
2024-11-09 2025 Purdue Fort Wayne @ UCF 68–75 regular
2024-11-05 2025 Texas A&M @ UCF 61–64 regular