mens · season 2026
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 131 cutoffs from
2025-11-20 to 2026-04-07.
Axis spans 1.12 to 1.38.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2026-01-22, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Purdue
- Illinois
- Michigan
- Alabama
- Duke
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjOE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1.35 | 114 | #2 Elite 8 (out) |
| 2 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.34 | 114 | #3 Final Four (out) |
| 3 | Michigan Wolverines | 1.33 | 114 | #1 Champion |
| 4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1.33 | 114 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 5 | Duke Blue Devils | 1.33 | 114 | #1 Elite 8 (out) |
| 6 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1.32 | 114 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 7 | Wisconsin Badgers | 1.32 | 114 | #5 Round of 64 (out) |
| 8 | Arizona Wildcats | 1.29 | 114 | #1 Final Four (out) |
| 9 | BYU Cougars | 1.29 | 114 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 10 | Louisville Cardinals | 1.29 | 114 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 11 | Vanderbilt Commodores | 1.29 | 114 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 12 | NC State Wolfpack | 1.28 | 114 | #11 Play-in (out) |
| 13 | Auburn Tigers | 1.28 | 114 | — |
| 14 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1.28 | 114 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 15 | Florida Gators | 1.28 | 114 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 1.27 | 114 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 17 | Texas Longhorns | 1.27 | 114 | #11 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 18 | Georgia Bulldogs | 1.27 | 114 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 19 | Oklahoma Sooners | 1.27 | 114 | — |
| 20 | Baylor Bears | 1.27 | 114 | — |
| 21 | Michigan State Spartans | 1.27 | 114 | #3 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 22 | UCLA Bruins | 1.27 | 114 | #7 Round of 32 (out) |
| 23 | SMU Mustangs | 1.27 | 114 | #11 Play-in (out) |
| 24 | Iowa State Cyclones | 1.27 | 114 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 25 | Santa Clara Broncos | 1.27 | 114 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2026-03-15) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.