mens · season 2021
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjOE — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 110 cutoffs from
2020-12-08 to 2021-04-04.
Axis spans 0.91 to 1.47.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The shortest drawn line covers
86 of the 110 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only
after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2021-02-20, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Iowa
- Gonzaga
- Baylor
- Ohio State
- Florida State
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjOE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 1.27 | 97 | #2 Round of 32 (out) |
| 2 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1.26 | 97 | #1 Title game (out) |
| 3 | Baylor Bears | 1.25 | 97 | #1 Champion |
| 4 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 1.25 | 97 | #2 Round of 64 (out) |
| 5 | Florida State Seminoles | 1.22 | 97 | #4 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 6 | LSU Tigers | 1.22 | 97 | #8 Round of 32 (out) |
| 7 | Houston Cougars | 1.22 | 97 | #2 Final Four (out) |
| 8 | Villanova Wildcats | 1.22 | 97 | #5 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 9 | Michigan Wolverines | 1.21 | 97 | #1 Elite 8 (out) |
| 10 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1.21 | 97 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 11 | Colgate Raiders | 1.20 | 73 | #14 Round of 64 (out) |
| 12 | Virginia Cavaliers | 1.19 | 97 | #4 Round of 64 (out) |
| 13 | Colorado Buffaloes | 1.18 | 97 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 14 | Drake Bulldogs | 1.17 | 97 | #11 Round of 64 (out) |
| 15 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 1.17 | 97 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 16 | Creighton Bluejays | 1.17 | 97 | #5 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 17 | Davidson Wildcats | 1.16 | 97 | — |
| 18 | Arizona Wildcats | 1.16 | 97 | — |
| 19 | UConn Huskies | 1.16 | 97 | #7 Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | BYU Cougars | 1.16 | 97 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 21 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 1.15 | 97 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
| 22 | Duke Blue Devils | 1.15 | 97 | — |
| 23 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 1.15 | 97 | — |
| 24 | USC Trojans | 1.15 | 97 | #6 Elite 8 (out) |
| 25 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1.15 | 97 | #3 Elite 8 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-18) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.