mens · season 2021
The season's top 25 going into the tournament, by AdjDE — the lowest values, since a defence allows points rather than scoring them — each traced across every cutoff of the season's walk. One season is one fit, so these lines share one time axis; a team that only entered the ratings later starts where it entered, not at zero. Values are points per possession.
train_cutoff_at — 110 cutoffs from
2020-12-08 to 2021-04-04.
Axis spans 0.70 to 1.07.
Hover or tap the chart to name the teams at that point and their
order — every line carries its own hit area, so nothing is read off its color alone.
The shortest drawn line covers
108 of the 110 cutoffs — a team enters the ratings only
after it has played enough games, so early cutoffs have no line for it.
The faded lead-in on the left is the warm-up: from the season's first
cutoff through 2021-02-20, fewer than half the field had
played 18 games, where a rating (a mean) has not yet settled. It is
faded, not cut — the burn-in is the finding.
Warm-up:
shown ·
hide
- Alabama
- Memphis
- Michigan
- Loyola Chicago
- Utah State
- 20 more, drawn as grey context
The top 25 going into the tournament
| # | Team | AdjDE | Cutoffs rated | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.87 | 97 | #2 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 2 | Memphis Tigers | 0.87 | 97 | — |
| 3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.88 | 97 | #1 Elite 8 (out) |
| 4 | Loyola Chicago Ramblers | 0.88 | 95 | #8 Sweet 16 (out) |
| 5 | Utah State Aggies | 0.89 | 97 | #11 Round of 64 (out) |
| 6 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.89 | 97 | #3 Round of 32 (out) |
| 7 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.89 | 97 | #1 Round of 32 (out) |
| 8 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.89 | 96 | #5 Round of 64 (out) |
| 9 | Wisconsin Badgers | 0.90 | 97 | #9 Round of 32 (out) |
| 10 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.90 | 95 | — |
| 11 | Clemson Tigers | 0.90 | 97 | #7 Round of 64 (out) |
| 12 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.90 | 97 | #8 Round of 64 (out) |
| 13 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 0.90 | 97 | #1 Title game (out) |
| 14 | VCU Rams | 0.91 | 97 | #10 Round of 64 (out) |
| 15 | Saint Mary's Gaels | 0.91 | 97 | — |
| 16 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 0.91 | 97 | #3 Elite 8 (out) |
| 17 | Houston Cougars | 0.91 | 97 | #2 Final Four (out) |
| 18 | Maryland Terrapins | 0.91 | 97 | #10 Round of 32 (out) |
| 19 | Purdue Boilermakers | 0.91 | 97 | #4 Round of 64 (out) |
| 20 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.91 | 97 | #6 Round of 64 (out) |
| 21 | Colorado Buffaloes | 0.91 | 97 | #5 Round of 32 (out) |
| 22 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 0.91 | 97 | #10 Round of 32 (out) |
| 23 | USC Trojans | 0.92 | 97 | #6 Elite 8 (out) |
| 24 | Florida Gators | 0.92 | 97 | #7 Round of 32 (out) |
| 25 | Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.92 | 97 | #6 Round of 32 (out) |
Ranked and valued at the pre-tournament cutoff (2021-03-18) — the last one whose ratings had seen no NCAA tournament game, best (lowest) first. This is the rating each team carried into the bracket the Postseason column reports, so the two are read on the same information. Hover or click the chart for any other cutoff. A team's value is blank when it had not yet been rated at that cutoff; a line begins where a team entered the ratings, so early-season lines are shorter, not missing.